Match Info

J1 League - Round 10

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Fukuoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Avispa Fukuoka		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	2.85	Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.8
	2.45	3.05	2.88	Watch
	2.54	3.15	3.12
	2.48	3.08	3.07	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.52	3.04	2.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.46)	3.06 ↓ (3.26)	2.94 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avispa Fukuoka
37.7%

Draw
30.5%

V-Varen Nagasaki
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

29%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

29.4%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Avispa Fukuoka - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 3 - 50%). V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Fujita K. (G) 16. Oka T. 3. Nara T. (C) 15. Tsujioka Y. 47. Hashimoto Y. 34. Shiihashi K. 11. Miki T. 29. Maejima Y. 6. Shigemi M. 14. Nago S. 7. Usui S.	1. Goto M. (G) 50. Shindo R. 29. Arai I. 6. Egawa Y. 8. Iwasaki Y. 5. Yamaguchi H. (C) 19. Sawada T. 23. Yoneda S. 10. Matheus Jesus 41. Hasegawa M. 18. Yamasaki R.
Substitutes
22. Fujimoto K. 5. Kamijima T. 25. Kitajima Y. 27. Michiwaki Y. 45. Miya D. 99. Obi P. O. (G) 8. Okuno K. 32. Sani Brown A. 33. Yamawaki K.	11. Campbell N. 21. Diego Pituca 4. Dudu Giusti 13. Hatano G. (G) 33. Kasayanagi T. 34. Matsumoto T. 22. Onaga H. 48. Teruyama H. 9. Thiago
Coaches
Tsukahara S.	Takagi T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Arai I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sawada T. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
53', Shindo R. 🟨,
62', 1 - 0, Miki T. ⚽, Hashimoto Y. (A),
65', Yamasaki R. ↓, Thiago ↑,
68', Iwasaki Y. ↓, Campbell N. ↑,
74', Usui S. ↓, Michiwaki Y. ↑,
74', Shigemi M. ↓, Kitajima Y. ↑,
85', Nago S. ↓, Okuno K. ↑,
86', Hashimoto Y. ↓, Yamawaki K. ↑,
86', Yamaguchi H. ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
86', Arai I. ↓, Onaga H. ↑,
90+1', Nara T. ↓, Kamijima T. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Nagura T. (Illness)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Avispa Fukuoka won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1:1.1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Avispa Fukuoka: 0.71% V-Varen Nagasaki: 0.6%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Avispa Fukuoka	4	1	0	3	6:6	0	3
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4:9	-5	3

Last Results with these Odds

Avispa Fukuoka - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.42%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J1 League
05.04.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Gamba Osaka	3:2 penalties ✺
18.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:2 penalties ✺
15.03.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WWLLL
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League
05.04.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:3 ✺
21.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Gamba Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
15.03.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0
Japan Emperors Cup
13.07.22	Avispa Fukuoka - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0
Japan J2 League
27.09.20	V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka	1:3
04.07.20	Avispa Fukuoka - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2
07.09.19	V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0
02.03.19	Avispa Fukuoka - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:0
16.08.17	Avispa Fukuoka - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1

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