The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Bahia 63.8%
Draw 22.2%
Náutico Capibaribe 14%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
58.7%
25%
16.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
60.7%
24.2%
15.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bahia's performance.
Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+1.8%)
Bahia - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
AH +1 - Náutico (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 13. Arias S. 8. Cauly (C) 83. Fred Lippert 3. Gabriel Xavier 37. Kayky 15. Michel Araujo 26. Nicolas Acevedo 11. Rodrigo 77. Tiago 66. Ze Guilherme
1. Muriel Becker (G) 18. Auremir (C) 80. Bruno Mezenga 33. Carlinhos 23. Igor Fernandes 5. Igor Pereira 13. Indio 12. Kelvin 8. Marco Antonio 17. Marcos Ytalo 7. Vinicius
Substitutes
7. Ademir 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 33. David Duarte 63. David Martins 10. Everton Ribeiro 2. Gilberto 68. Jota 71. Kaua Davi 46. Luciano Juba 21. Ramos S. 52. Ruan Pablo 12. Willian Jose
35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 39. Eduardo 15. Kayon 30. Marco Antonio 14. Odivan 20. Patrick Allan 3. Rayan . Wellerson R. (G) 22. Wenderson
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Bruno Mezenga ⚽,
10', Ademir 🟨,
28', Igor Pereira 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Tiago ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', Igor Fernandes ↓, Odivan ↑,
58', 2 - 1, Indio (Own goal),
62', Rodrigo ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
62', Kayky ↓, Ademir ↑,
64', 🟨,
69', Tiago ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
69', Ze Guilherme ↓, Luciano Juba ↑,
78', Vinicius ↓, de Sousa Oliveira T. ↑,
78', 3 - 1, Michel Araujo ⚽,
80', Michel Araujo ↓, Jota ↑,
80', Marco Antonio ↓, Patrick Allan ↑,
90', 🟨,
Preview
This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 4.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Bahia is the undisputed favorite.
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:7. (average 1.3:0.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:4. (average 2:0.5).
Brazil
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Ronaldo Strada (G) 
Arias S. 
Michel Araujo 
Ramos S. 
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