Match Info

Serie B - Round 22

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Italy	DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Slovenia	Sport TV3
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Bari		Palermo

	1	X	2
	5	3.3	1.76	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.87
	4.45	3.15	1.85	Watch
	5.09	3.35	1.85
	4.62	3.4	1.81	Watch
	4.8	3.1	1.8
	4.82	3.2	1.83	Watch
	5	3.25	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.75 ↑ (3.67)	3.26 ↑ (3.2)	1.82 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
19.7%

Draw
28.8%

Palermo
51.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

28.9%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

27.8%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bari's form might have worsened.

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palermo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	41.7%	41.7%

Bari - Palermo Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Palermo will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palermo: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Palermo (2.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Palermo will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cerofolini M. (G) 51. Cistana A. 25. Pucino R. (C) 37. Stabile G. 30. Mane M. 27. Braunoder M. 29. Verreth M. 93. Dorval M. 49. De Pieri G. 11. Moncini G. 17. Rao E.	66. Joronen J. (G) 29. Peda P. 13. Bani M. (C) 32. Ceccaroni P. 27. Pierozzi N. 8. Segre J. 10. Ranocchia F. 3. Augello T. 5. Palumbo A. 20. Pohjanpalo J. 21. Le Douaron J.
Substitutes
10. Bellomo N. 3. Burgio R. 20. Cavuoti N. 32. Colangiuli V. 90. Cuni M. 24. Dickmann L. 19. Esteves T. 9. Gytkjaer C. 15. Kassama S. 13. Meroni A. 8. Pagano R. 1. Pissardo M. (G)	19. Bereszynski B. 28. Blin A. 31. Corona G. 77. Di Bartolo F. (G) 17. Giovane S. 6. Gomes C. 1. Gomis A. (G) 11. Gyasi E. 14. Vasic A.
Coaches
Longo M.	Inzaghi F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Pucino R. 🟨,
32', Stabile G. 🟨,
38', Palumbo A. 🟨,
45+1', Rao E. ↓, Dickmann L. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
57', 0 - 1, Le Douaron J. ⚽, Ceccaroni P. (A),
63', Mane M. ↓, Cavuoti N. ↑,
63', De Pieri G. ↓, Cuni M. ↑,
65', Le Douaron J. 🟨,
65', Dickmann L. 🟨,
67', 0 - 2, Pohjanpalo J. ⚽, Palumbo A. (A),
70', Le Douaron J. ↓, Gyasi E. ↑,
71', Pierozzi N. 🟨,
74', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Corona G. ↑,
74', Pierozzi N. ↓, Bereszynski B. ↑,
74', Palumbo A. ↓, Gomes C. ↑,
76', Moncini G. ↓, Gytkjaer C. ↑,
76', Braunoder M. ↓, Esteves T. ↑,
82', 0 - 3, Ranocchia F. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Bani M. ↓, Vasic A. ↑,
88', Bereszynski B. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 1.

Bari has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Palermo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Palermo is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bari: Antonucci M. (Inactive) Castrovilli G. (Inactive) Darboe E. (Thigh Injury) Maggiore G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Palermo: Diakite S. (Inactive) Magnani G. (Leg Injury) Veroli D. (Inactive)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Bari won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 10:22. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palermo	6	5	1	0	14:7	7	16

Last Results with these Odds

Palermo - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 45.89%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
24.01.26	Cesena - Bari	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Bari - Juve Stabia	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Carrarese - Bari	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Bari - Avellino	1:1 ✺
19.12.25	Bari - Catanzaro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLLTL
- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
24.01.26	Modena - Palermo	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Palermo - Spezia	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Mantova - Palermo	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Palermo - Padova	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Avellino - Palermo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
19.09.25	Palermo - Bari	2:0
11.04.25	Bari - Palermo	2:1
26.12.24	Palermo - Bari	1:0
02.02.24	Palermo - Bari	3:0
18.08.23	Bari - Palermo	0:0
20.01.23	Palermo - Bari	1:0
19.08.22	Bari - Palermo	1:1

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