Match Info

Serie B - Round 19

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio dei Marmi (Carrara)

Referee: Allegretta C. G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Carrarese		Bari

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.82	3.9	Watch
	2	3.25	3.75
	2.05	3.1	3.65	Watch
	2.03	3.21	3.85	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.5
	2.11	3.05	3.77	Watch
	2	3.1	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.79)	3.09 ↓ (3.33)	3.8 ↓ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carrarese
45.4%

Draw
30.1%

Bari
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

27.6%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

26.6%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carrarese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carrarese's form might have worsened.

Bari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carrarese than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carrarese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bari than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.5%	34.8%	21.7%

Carrarese - Bari Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Carrarese will win (votes: 10 - 43.5%). Bari will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 34.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carrarese: 23.2% – 63.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Carrarese (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Bari (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bleve M. (G) 37. Calabrese N. 4. Illanes J. 6. Oliana F. 7. Belloni N. 70. Hasa L. 17. Zuelli E. 18. Schiavi N. 13. Bouah D. 9. Abiuso F. 32. Finotto M.	31. Cerofolini M. (G) 25. Pucino R. 13. Meroni A. 51. Cistana A. 30. Mane M. 27. Braunoder M. 29. Verreth M. 24. Dickmann L. 4. Castrovilli G. 9. Gytkjaer C. 18. Maggiore G.
Substitutes
10. Bozhanaj K. 11. Cicconi M. 28. Di Stefano F. 99. Fiorillo V. (G) 22. Mazzini S. (G) 8. Melegoni F. 77. Parlanti G. 21. Rubino T. 26. Ruggeri F. 44. Sekulov N. 92. Torregrossa E. 20. Troise A.	16. Antonucci M. 10. Bellomo N. 3. Burgio R. 99. Cerri L. 32. Colangiuli V. 11. Moncini G. 43. Nikolaou D. 8. Pagano R. . Pardo F. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 17. Rao E. 37. Stabile G.
Coaches
Calabro A.	Vivarini V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Abiuso F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Castrovilli G. ↓, Bellomo N. ↑,
50', 1 - 0, Abiuso F. ⚽, Calabrese N. (A),
62', Maggiore G. ↓, Pagano R. ↑,
62', Gytkjaer C. ↓, Moncini G. ↑,
66', Belloni N. ↓, Cicconi M. ↑,
66', Finotto M. ↓, Sekulov N. ↑,
74', Pucino R. ↓, Colangiuli V. ↑,
84', Abiuso F. ↓, Torregrossa E. ↑,
84', Zuelli E. ↓, Melegoni F. ↑,
84', Mane M. ↓, Cerri L. ↑,
88', Hasa L. ↓, Parlanti G. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

Carrarese is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Bari has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Carrarese is the team to beat.

There will not play in Carrarese: Accornero F. (Inactive) Salamon B. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bari: Darboe E. (Thigh Injury) Dorval M. (International duty)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Carrarese won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Carrarese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	2:6	-4	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carrarese Calcio
Italian Serie B
27.12.25	Carrarese - Mantova	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Monza - Carrarese	4:1 ✺
14.12.25	Carrarese - Virtus Entella	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Sampdoria - Carrarese	3:2 ✺
29.11.25	Palermo - Carrarese	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLWLL
- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
27.12.25	Bari - Avellino	1:1 ✺
19.12.25	Bari - Catanzaro	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Bari	0:0 ✺
08.12.25	Bari - Pescara	1:1 ✺
04.12.25	Juve Stabia - Bari	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
30.03.25	Carrarese - Bari	2:1
29.10.24	Bari - Carrarese	0:0
Italian Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs
17.07.20	Bari - Carrarese	2:1 ET

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