Match Info

Serie B - Round 36

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Marco Druso (Bolzano)

Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Südtirol-Alto Adige		Mantova

	1	X	2
	3	2.45	3	Watch
	2.25	2.87	3.5
	2.78	2.68	2.88
	2.87	2.9	3
	2.67	3	2.81	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.7
	3.04	2.54	3.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.01)	2.76 ↓ (3.45)	2.99 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Südtirol-Alto Adige
34.2%

Draw
34.2%

Mantova
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

27.1%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

28%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Südtirol-Alto Adige has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Südtirol-Alto Adige's form might have worsened.

Mantova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mantova's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Südtirol-Alto Adige, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mantova, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	75%	16.7%

Südtirol Alto Adige - Mantova Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Südtirol will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Mantova will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Mantova (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mantova (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Adamonis M. (G) 34. Veseli F. 19. Pietrangeli N. 5. Masiello A. 79. Molina S. 21. Tait F. (C) 6. Martini J. 17. Casiraghi D. 24. Davi S. 90. Odogwu R. 11. Tonin R.	24. Bardi F. (G) 3. Dembele A. 29. Cella S. 27. Castellini A. 96. Maggioni T. 80. Kouda R. 21. Trimboli S. 50. Benaissa-Yahia F. 23. Marras T. 19. Ruocco F. 9. Mancuso L. (C)
Substitutes
1. Borra D. (G) 46. Brik D. 89. Crnigoj D. 23. Davi F. 94. El Kaouakibi H. 26. Frigerio M. R. 4. Mancini D. 33. Merkaj S. 9. Pecorino E. 13. Sabatini C. 62. Theiner D. (G) 18. Tronchin S.	22. Andrenacci L. (G) 30. Bragantini D. 77. Buso N. 28. Caprini M. 18. Falletti C. 15. Goncalves T. 33. Marai C. 36. Paoletti F. 17. Radaelli N. 34. Vukovic A. (G) 10. Wieser D. 98. Zuccon F.
Coaches
Castori F.	Modesto F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
35', 0 - 1, Trimboli S. ⚽, Benaissa-Yahia F. (A),
41', Masiello A. 🟨,
41', 0 - 2, Marras T. ⚽, Castellini A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Tonin R. ↓, Merkaj S. ↑,
46', Odogwu R. ↓, Pecorino E. ↑,
56', Masiello A. ↓, El Kaouakibi H. ↑,
56', Martini J. ↓, Frigerio M. R. ↑,
63', Ruocco F. ↓, Falletti C. ↑,
63', Benaissa-Yahia F. ↓, Radaelli N. ↑,
70', Merkaj S. 🟨,
72', Kouda R. ↓, Wieser D. ↑,
72', Marras T. ↓, Paoletti F. ↑,
72', Tait F. ↓, Crnigoj D. ↑,
82', Mancuso L. ↓, Buso N. ↑,
83', 0 - 3, Wieser D. ⚽,
84', Wieser D. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Südtirol won 2.

Südtirol is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mantova's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Südtirol is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Südtirol: Cragno A. (Achilles Tendon Injury) El Kaouakibi H. (Inactive) Kofler R. (Inactive) Zedadka K. (Red Card)

There will not play in Mantova: Bonfanti N. (Ankle Injury) Mensah D. (Injury) Meroni A. (Inactive) Muci N. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Südtirol won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Südtirol won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Mantova: 2.45% Sudtirol: 2.03%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sudtirol	6	3	3	0	9:3	6	12
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	10:5	5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Mantova - the odds 3.55 are the expected chance of winning is 26.35%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
18.04.26	Spezia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	6:1 ✺
11.04.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Modena	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Cesena - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Frosinone	1:3 ✺
18.03.26	Avellino - Südtirol-Alto Adige	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTTLL
- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
18.04.26	Mantova - Avellino	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Spezia - Mantova	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Mantova - Virtus Entella	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Modena - Mantova	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Mantova - Cesena	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
18.10.25	Mantova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1
29.03.25	Mantova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:0
14.12.24	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Mantova	2:2
Italian Serie C Group A
06.03.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Mantova	1:0
24.10.21	Mantova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1
Italian Serie C Group B
08.03.21	Mantova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1
11.11.20	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Mantova	2:1

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