Match Info

Serie B - Round 38

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo (Catanzaro)

Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Catanzaro		Bari

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.1	2.15	Watch
	3.25	3	2.25	Watch
	3.61	3.24	2.26
	3.24	3.1	2.31	Watch
	3.2	3	2.25
	3.39	3.2	2.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (2.27)	3.11 ↓ (3.12)	2.23 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Catanzaro
27.9%

Draw
30.2%

Bari
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

29.9%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

28.7%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Catanzaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Catanzaro's form might have worsened.

Bari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bari's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (+14.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Catanzaro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bari than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bari, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.1%	35.5%	48.4%

Catanzaro - Bari Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Catanzaro will win (votes: 5 - 16.1%). Bari will win (votes: 15 - 48.4%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 35.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bari: 30.8% – 66%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Catanzaro (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Bari (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Bari (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bari (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Catanzaro (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Bari (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marietta C. (G) 5. Bashi E. 23. Brighenti N. (C) 26. Verrengia B. 2. Esteves G. 21. Pompetti M. 98. Buglio D. 77. D'Alessandro M. 28. Oudin R. 32. Rispoli F. 39. Koffi N.	31. Cerofolini M. (G) 13. Mantovani V. (C) 26. Odenthal C. 43. Nikolaou D. 28. Piscopo K. 19. Esteves T. 18. Maggiore G. 8. Pagano R. 93. Dorval M. 11. Moncini G. 17. Rao E.
Substitutes
30. Alesi G. 99. Borrelli E. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 94. Di Francesco F. 6. Fellipe Jack 82. Gjoka K. 14. Liberali M. 4. Matias Antonini 19. Nuamah P. 10. Petriccione J. 22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 20. Pontisso S.	80. Artioli F. 10. Bellomo N. 20. Cavuoti N. 90. Cuni M. 49. De Pieri G. 24. Dickmann L. 9. Gytkjaer C. 30. Mane M. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 25. Pucino R. 37. Stabile G. 66. Traore D.
Coaches
Aquilani A.	Longo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 1 - 0, Verrengia B. ⚽, D'Alessandro M. (A),
16', Buglio D. 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, Moncini G. ⚽, Rao E. (A),
26', Piscopo K. 🟨,
40', 1 - 2, Piscopo K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 1 - 3, Piscopo K. ⚽, Dorval M. (A),
52', Esteves G. ↓, Cassandro T. ↑,
52', Buglio D. ↓, Alesi G. ↑,
52', Brighenti N. ↓, Di Francesco F. ↑,
69', Esteves T. ↓, Artioli F. ↑,
69', Oudin R. ↓, Liberali M. ↑,
69', Piscopo K. ↓, Mane M. ↑,
78', Rao E. ↓, Bellomo N. ↑,
79', Moncini G. ↓, Cuni M. ↑,
79', D'Alessandro M. ↓, Nuamah P. ↑,
90+2', Maggiore G. ↓, Dickmann L. ↑,
90+7', 2 - 3, Koffi N. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Catanzaro: Brighenti N. (Inactive) Cisse A. (Muscle Injury) Iemmello P. (Injury)

There will not play in Bari: Braunoder M. (Yellow Cards) Darboe E. (Thigh Injury) Sibilli G. (Suspended) Verreth M. (Red Card)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Catanzaro won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	5:9	-4	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
01.05.26	Palermo - Catanzaro	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Catanzaro - Spezia	4:2 ✺
18.04.26	Juve Stabia - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
14.04.26	Catanzaro - Modena	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Avellino - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWTTT
- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
01.05.26	Bari - Virtus Entella	2:0 ✺
24.04.26	Avellino - Bari	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Bari - Venezia	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Monza - Bari	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Bari - Modena	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
19.12.25	Bari - Catanzaro	1:2
06.04.25	Catanzaro - Bari	3:3
18.10.24	Bari - Catanzaro	1:1
27.02.24	Catanzaro - Bari	2:0
24.09.23	Bari - Catanzaro	2:2
Italian Serie C Group C
13.03.22	Catanzaro - Bari	1:2
30.10.21	Bari - Catanzaro	2:1

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