Match Info

National League South - Round 31

Date: 24 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Twerton Park (Bath)


	Bath City		Hemel Hempstead Town

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.1	2.4
	3.45	3.2	2.02
	3.81	3.27	2.01
	3.7	3.35	2	Watch
	3.7	3.1	1.91
	3.76	3.34	1.98
	2.75	3	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.68)	3.19 ↓ (3.24)	2.12 ↓ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bath City
27.3%

Draw
29%

Hemel Hempstead Town
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

28.7%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

28%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bath City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bath City's form might have worsened.

Hemel Hempstead Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hemel Hempstead Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bath City than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bath City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hemel Hempstead Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Bath City - Hemel Hempstead Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Hemel Hempstead will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hemel Hempstead (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Williams G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', 0 - 2, Noel-Williams I. ⚽,
82', 0 - 3, Campbell R. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bath won 1.

Recent form of Bath has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hemel Hempstead has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hemel Hempstead may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bath won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:20. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bath won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:4. (average 1.7:0.4).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Hemel Hempstead: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10:10	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Bath City - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.64%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Hemel Hempstead Town - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 36.7%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bath City
English National League South
21.03.26	Tonbridge Angels - Bath City	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Horsham - Bath City	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Bath City - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
10.03.26	Bath City - Farnborough	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Chelmsford City - Bath City	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLTLL
- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
21.03.26	Hornchurch - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Totton	2:0 ✺
10.03.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chippenham Town	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Farnborough - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:3 ✺
28.02.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
25.10.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Bath City	1:0
29.03.25	Bath City - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:0
31.08.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Bath City	4:2
12.03.24	Bath City - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:0
21.11.23	Hemel Hempstead Town - Bath City	0:0
07.03.23	Bath City - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0
06.12.22	Hemel Hempstead Town - Bath City	1:0

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