Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 20 September 2023, Wednesday

Location: Allianz Arena (Munich)

Referee: Nyberg G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	BTV Action
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	CMore, CMore Sport
France	beIN Sports
Italy	Sky Sport Arena, Sky Sport
Portugal	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	TV4
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Bayern Munich		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	1.45	5	5.75
	1.47	5.1	6.2	Watch
	1.48	4.75	5.5
	1.49	5.08	6.23
	1.4	4.4	5.5
	1.52	5.35	6.35
	1.49	5	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.57)	4.95 ↑ (4.4)	6.02 ↑ (5.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 0.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayern Munich
64.9%

Draw
19.3%

Manchester United
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

21.5%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

20.9%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Manchester United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.4%	3.8%	3.8%

Bayern Munich - Manchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (171 of 185 users predict this - 92.43%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.62% – 96.24%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Ulreich S. (G) 27. Laimer K. 2. Upamecano D. 3. Kim Min-Jae 19. Davies A. 6. Kimmich J. (C) 8. Goretzka L. 10. Sane L. 42. Musiala J. 7. Gnabry S. 9. Kane H.	24. Onana A. (G) 20. Dalot D. 2. Lindelof V. 6. Martinez Li. 15. Reguilon S. 18. Casemiro 14. Eriksen C. 28. Pellistri F. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 10. Rashford M. 11. Hojlund R.
Substitutes
13. Choupo-Moting E. M. 11. Coman K. 4. de Ligt M. 41. Kratzig F. 40. Mazraoui N. 25. Muller T. 18. Peretz D. (G) 20. Sarr B. 48. Schmitt M. (G) 39. Tel M.	1. Bayindir A. (G) 35. Evans J. 62. Forson O. 17. Garnacho A. 44. Gore D. 22. Heaton T. (G) 9. Martial A. 39. McTominay S. 46. Mejbri H. 40. Vitek R. (G)
Coaches
Low Z.	ten Hag E.

Preview

Bayern is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Man Utd is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Bayern is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Bayern: Buchmann T. (Muscle Injury) Guerreiro R. (Calf Injury) Hulsmann T. (Thigh Injury) Marusic G. (Knee Injury) Neuer M. (Broken Leg)

There will not play in Man Utd: Amrabat S. (Back Injury) Antony (Inactive) Diallo A. (Knee Injury) Heaton T. (Calf Injury) Maguire H. (Injury) Mainoo K. (Ankle Injury) Malacia T. (Muscle Injury) Mount M. (Hamstring Injury) Sancho J. (Suspended) Shaw L. (Muscle Injury) Varane R. (Injury) Wan-Bissaka A. (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Bayern won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Bayern won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
15.09.23	Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
02.09.23	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
27.08.23	Bayern Munich - Augsburg	3:1 ✺
18.08.23	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
German Super Cup
12.08.23	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWWWL
- Manchester United
English Premier League
16.09.23	Manchester United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:3 ✺
03.09.23	Arsenal - Manchester United	3:1 ✺
26.08.23	Manchester United - Nottingham Forest	3:2 ✺
19.08.23	Tottenham Hotspur - Manchester United	2:0 ✺
14.08.23	Manchester United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
05.08.18	Bayern Munich - Manchester United	1:0
UEFA Champions League
09.04.14	Bayern Munich - Manchester United	3:1
01.04.14	Manchester United - Bayern Munich	1:1

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