Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Emirates Stadium (London) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Pawson C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	17:30	SuperSport 2
Argentina	13:30	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	20:30	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	03:30	Stan Sport
Austria	17:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League, Sky Sport Austria Top Event
Azerbaijan	20:30	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	17:30	Play Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	17:30	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	13:30	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	18:30	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	11:30	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	13:30	Disney+
China	00:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	11:30	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	17:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	18:30	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	17:30	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	17:30	See, Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	18:30	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	17:30	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free
Georgia	20:30	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	17:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	18:30	Nova Sports Premier League
Hong Kong	00:30	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	17:30	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	22:00	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	23:30	SCTV, Vidio
Ireland	16:30	NOW
Israel	18:30	Sport 1
Italy	17:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	01:30	U-NEXT
Kenya	19:30	Gotv
Kosovo	17:30	Arena Premium 1, SuperSport 2
Kyrgyzstan	22:30	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	00:30	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, Astro Sports, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Maldives	21:30	ICE Sports, Medianet
Malta	17:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	10:30	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Moldova	18:30	Setanta Sports 1
Myanmar	23:00	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	22:15	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	17:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	05:30	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 8, Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	17:30	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	17:30	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Pakistan	21:30	ARY ZAP
Peru	11:30	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	17:30	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	16:30	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	18:30	Voyo
Serbia	17:30	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	00:30	Hub Premier 1, Hub Premier 2, Hub Premier 8
Slovakia	17:30	Voyo
Slovenia	17:30	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	18:30	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South
South Korea	01:30	Coupang Play
Spain	17:30	DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	17:30	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	17:30	Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	21:30	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	23:30	AIS PLAY
Turkey	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	21:30	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	18:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	16:30	BBC Radio 5 Live, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	13:30	Disney+
Usa	11:30	NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, SiriusXM FC
Uzbekistan	21:30	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	12:30	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	23:30	FPT Play
International	16:30	Sport 24


	Arsenal		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5.75
	1.55	4.55	5.9
	1.55	4.55	6.15
	1.55	4.61	5.87	Watch
	1.53	4.2	5.5
	1.58	4.58	5.52	Watch
	1.55	4.33	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.47)	4.47 ↓ (4.55)	5.76 ↓ (7.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal
61.9%

Draw
21.4%

Manchester United
16.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

65.4%

21.1%

13.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.2%

20.2%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arsenal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64%	12%	24%

Arsenal - Manchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Arsenal will win (votes: 47 - 64.4%). Man Utd will win (votes: 17 - 23.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 12.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 53.4% – 75.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 17 - 60.7%). Man Utd (votes: 10 - 35.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Man Utd (4.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 60%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 10 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Man Utd (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 17 - 56.7%). Man Utd (votes: 12 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 5. Hincapie P. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 36. Zubimendi M. 41. Rice D. 7. Saka B. 9. Gabriel Jesus 19. Trossard L.	31. Lammens S. (G) 2. Dalot D. 5. Maguire H. 6. Martinez Li. 23. Shaw L. 18. Casemiro 37. Mainoo K. 16. Diallo A. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 13. Dorgu P. 19. Mbeumo B.
Substitutes
13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 10. Eze E. 14. Gyökeres V. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 20. Madueke N. 11. Martinelli G. 23. Merino M. 3. Mosquera C. 4. White B.	1. Bayindir A. (G) 10. Cunha M. 26. Heaven A. 12. Malacia T. 3. Mazraoui N. 7. Mount M. 30. Sesko B. 25. Ugarte M. 15. Yoro L.
Coaches
Arteta M.	Carrick M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Martinez Li. (Own goal),
37', 1 - 1, Mbeumo B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 1 - 2, Dorgu P. ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
58', Hincapie P. ↓, White B. ↑,
58', Gabriel Jesus ↓, Gyökeres V. ↑,
58', Odegaard M. ↓, Merino M. ↑,
58', Zubimendi M. ↓, Eze E. ↑,
64', Rice D. 🟨,
69', Mbeumo B. ↓, Cunha M. ↑,
75', Trossard L. ↓, Madueke N. ↑,
81', Dorgu P. ↓, Sesko B. ↑,
84', 2 - 2, Merino M. ⚽,
87', 2 - 3, Cunha M. ⚽, Mainoo K. (A),
88', Diallo A. ↓, Mazraoui N. ↑,
90+1', Eze E. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 3.

Arsenal is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Man Utd has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Arsenal has had a series of away games.

In this match, Arsenal is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Arsenal: Dowman M. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Man Utd: Zirkzee J. (Knock) de Ligt M. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Muscle Injury) Hincapie P. (Groin Injury) Salmon M. (Injury)

We predict that Arsenal will win today's game, with odds of 1.58.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:24. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:12. (average 1.7:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Arsenal	8	7	0	1	13:5	8	21
16	Manchester Utd	8	1	4	3	10:13	-3	7

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Arsenal: 62.36%

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 65.39%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal FC
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Inter Milan - Arsenal	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
17.01.26	Nottingham Forest - Arsenal	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
14.01.26	Chelsea - Arsenal	2:3 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Portsmouth - Arsenal	1:4 ✺
English Premier League
08.01.26	Arsenal - Liverpool	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTWWT
- Manchester United
English Premier League
17.01.26	Manchester United - Manchester City	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Manchester United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Burnley - Manchester United	2:2 ✺
04.01.26	Leeds United - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
30.12.25	Manchester United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
17.08.25	Manchester United - Arsenal	0:1
09.03.25	Manchester United - Arsenal	1:1
English FA Cup
12.01.25	Arsenal - Manchester United	1:2 penalties
English Premier League
04.12.24	Arsenal - Manchester United	2:0
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Arsenal - Manchester United	2:1
English Premier League
12.05.24	Manchester United - Arsenal	0:1
03.09.23	Arsenal - Manchester United	3:1

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