Match Info

Date: 23 February 2022, Wednesday


	Benfica		Ajax

	1	X	2
	4.5	4	1.7
	4.6	4.1	1.68
	4.9	4.2	1.72
	4.5	4.1	1.72
	4.78	4.18	1.74
	4.5	4	1.7
	4.7	4.33	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.64 ↑ (3.69)	4.13 ↑ (3.6)	1.71 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
20.7%

Draw
23.2%

Ajax
56.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

26.4%

47.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

20.8%

60.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ajax's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.6%	9.7%	81.7%

Benfica - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (228 of 279 users predict this - 81.72%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.18% – 86.26%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

1st leg.

Benfica was already of round of 16, has a chance of qtrs (17%), has a very small chance of semis (5%), has a very small chance of final (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Ajax was already of round of 16, has a good chance of qtrs (83%), has a chance of semis (47%), has a chance of final (25%), has a small chance of win league (12%).

This event has big quality 82, importance 58, big match rating 70. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Benfica is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ajax in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Ajax could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ajax is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Benfica won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Benfica won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
18.02.22	Boavista - Benfica	2:2 ✺
12.02.22	Benfica - Santa Clara	2:1 ✺
07.02.22	Tondela - Benfica	1:3 ✺
02.02.22	Benfica - Gil Vicente	1:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.01.22	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TWWLL
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
19.02.22	Willem II - Ajax	0:1 ✺
13.02.22	Ajax - Twente	5:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
09.02.22	Ajax - Vitesse	5:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
06.02.22	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	3:0 ✺
23.01.22	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
07.11.18	Benfica - Ajax	1:1
23.10.18	Ajax - Benfica	1:0
Club Friendly
26.07.14	Benfica - Ajax	0:1

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