Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 29

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Argentina	Disney+
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Sportsnet+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 10
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Silk Sport 2
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
Indonesia	Kompas TV, Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Sport TV3
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Ajax		Twente

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.9	2.8	Watch
	2.32	3.7	2.85
	2.36	3.86	2.85
	2.27	3.79	2.86	Watch
	2.2	3.6	2.75
	2.25	3.97	3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.25)	3.8 ↑ (3.72)	2.85 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
41.6%

Draw
25%

Twente
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

25.3%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

26.5%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Twente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Twente than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.8%	52.6%	10.5%

Ajax - Twente Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Twente will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 52.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Paes M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 2. Rosa L. 23. Berghuis S. (C) 24. Mokio J. 48. Steur S. 17. Edvardsen O. 25. Weghorst W. 11. Godts M.	1. Unnerstall L. (G) 28. van Rooij B. (C) 23. Lemkin S. 43. Nijstad R. 39. Rots M. 6. Zerrouki R. 14. Hlynsson K. 20. van den Belt T. 11. Rots D. 10. Lammers S. 27. Orjasaeter S.
Substitutes
67. Abdalla M. 30. Bouwman A. 7. Carrizo M. 9. Dolberg K. 10. Gloukh O. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 4. Itakura K. 19. Konadu D. 52. Reverson P. (G) 53. van der Lans M. 44. Verkuijl M. 5. Wijndal O.	8. Booth T. 38. Bruns M. 21. Karssies S. (G) 4. Kjolo M. 12. Peixoto G. 7. Pjaca M. 3. Propper R. 22. Tyton P. (G) 9. van Wolfswinkel R. 25. Vennegoor of Hesselink L. 32. Verschueren A. 42. Weidmann D.
Coaches
Garcia O.	van den Brom J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Zerrouki R. ⚽, Orjasaeter S. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Weghorst W. ⚽, Godts M. (A),
41', Edvardsen O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Gaaei A. 🟨,
57', Edvardsen O. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
61', Rots D. 🟨,
63', Rots D. ↓, Pjaca M. ↑,
63', Gloukh O. 🟨,
64', Lemkin S. 🟨,
69', Berghuis S. 🟨,
71', Berghuis S. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
71', Weghorst W. ↓, Konadu D. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, van Rooij B. ⚽, Lammers S. (A),
85', van den Belt T. ↓, Kjolo M. ↑,
85', Orjasaeter S. ↓, van Wolfswinkel R. ↑,
89', Gaaei A. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
90', Hlynsson K. ↓, Verschueren A. ↑,
90', Lammers S. ↓, Propper R. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 3.

Ajax has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Twente is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Ajax: Itakura K. (Back Injury) Jaros V. (Knee Injury) Regeer Y. (Injury) Zinchenko O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Twente: Hilgers M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Tomiyasu T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 40:24. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:4. (average 2.1:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	16:8	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
22.03.26	Feyenoord - Ajax	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	4:0 ✺
07.03.26	Groningen - Ajax	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Zwolle - Ajax	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWLTT
- FC Twente
Dutch Eredivisie
21.03.26	Fortuna Sittard - Twente	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Twente - Utrecht	0:2 ✺
08.03.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Twente	1:4 ✺
01.03.26	Twente - Feyenoord	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Twente - Groningen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
26.10.25	Twente - Ajax	2:3
18.05.25	Ajax - Twente	2:0
10.11.24	Twente - Ajax	2:2
14.04.24	Ajax - Twente	2:1
17.09.23	Twente - Ajax	3:1
28.05.23	Twente - Ajax	3:1
Dutch KNVB Beker
09.02.23	Twente - Ajax	0:1

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