Match Info

Date: 18 February 2021, Thursday


	Benfica		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	4	3.75	1.85
	3.6	3.7	2
	3.85	3.7	2
	3.85	3.6	1.88
	4.11	3.71	1.92
	3.6	3.5	2
	4.05	3.8	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↑ (2.9)	3.68 ↑ (3.6)	1.95 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 0.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
24.8%

Draw
26.1%

Arsenal
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

26.5%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

19.6%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Benfica's form might have worsened.

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arsenal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arsenal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.7%	15.8%	58.4%

Benfica - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 101 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 26 - 25.7%). Arsenal will win (votes: 59 - 58.4%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 48.8% – 68%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

1st leg. Neutral location - Stadio Olimpico. No spectators.

Benfica was already of round of 32, has a chance of round of 16 (34%), has a chance of qtrs (17%), has a small chance of semis (8%), has a very small chance of final (4%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

Arsenal was already of round of 32, has a good chance of round of 16 (66%), has a chance of qtrs (41%), has a chance of semis (24%), has a small chance of final (13%), has a small chance of win league (7%).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Benfica could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Arsenal will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Benfica won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
14.02.21	Moreirense - Benfica	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
11.02.21	Estoril Praia - Benfica	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.02.21	Benfica - Famalicão	2:0 ✺
05.02.21	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
01.02.21	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TWWTL
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
14.02.21	Arsenal - Leeds United	4:2 ✺
06.02.21	Aston Villa - Arsenal	1:0 ✺
02.02.21	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
30.01.21	Arsenal - Manchester United	0:0 ✺
26.01.21	Southampton - Arsenal	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Emirates Cup
29.07.17	Arsenal - Benfica	5:2
02.08.14	Arsenal - Benfica	5:1

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