Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 27

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham)

Referee: Bell E. (Eng)


	Birmingham City		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.2	7
	1.44	4.4	6.75
	1.42	4.5	7.5
	1.45	4.28	7.09	Watch
	1.44	4.33	6.5
	1.45	4.55	7	Watch
	1.42	4.5	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.33)	4.39 ↓ (4.98)	7.05 ↓ (9.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
65.4%

Draw
21.3%

Exeter City
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.8%

18.9%

10.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73%

18.3%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Birmingham City's form might have worsened.

Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Birmingham City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	18.7%	0%

Birmingham City - Exeter City Predictions

Users Predictions: Birmingham City will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Allsop R. (G) 2. Laird E. 4. Klarer C. (C) 25. Davies B. 20. Cochrane A. 12. Leonard M. 19. Gardner-Hickman T. 11. Wright S. 26. Harris L. 28. Stansfield J. 9. May A.	1. Whitworth J. (G) 2. McMillan J. 5. Fitzwater J. 8. Francis E. 17. Watts C. 6. Woods R. (C) 28. McDonald K. 18. Harper V. 7. Mitchell D. 47. Richards J. 11. Miller M.
Substitutes
6. Bielik K. 17. Dykes L. 31. Hanley G. 10. Jutkiewicz L. 45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G) 23. Sampsted A. 33. Yokoyama A.	10. Aitchison J. 23. Colwill J. 39. Diabate C. 16. Jones P. 37. MacDonald S. (G) 27. Magennis J. 14. Niskanen I.
Coaches
Davies C.	Caldwell G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Woods R. 🟨,
34', McMillan J. 🟨,
36', Leonard M. 🟨,
45+1', Klarer C. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Laird E. ⚽, May A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Watts C. 🟨,
61', Richards J. ↓, Magennis J. ↑,
61', McDonald K. ↓, Colwill J. ↑,
61', Stansfield J. ↓, Yokoyama A. ↑,
62', Wright S. ↓, Dykes L. ↑,
69', Harper V. 🟨,
73', Mitchell D. ↓, Jones P. ↑,
74', Alli M. ↓, Aitchison J. ↑,
83', May A. ↓, Bielik K. ↑,
85', Harper V. ↓, Niskanen I. ↑,
90+14', 🟥,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 15).

Birmingham is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Exeter is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Birmingham could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Exeter have a series of home games.

In this match Birmingham is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Birmingham to win the game is with odds 1.36.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Birmingham won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:1 (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English EFL Trophy
14.01.25	Swindon Town - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.25	Birmingham City - Lincoln City	2:1 ✺
English League One
04.01.25	Wigan Athletic - Birmingham City	0:3 ✺
01.01.25	Stockport County - Birmingham City	1:1 ✺
29.12.24	Birmingham City - Blackpool	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWTT
- Exeter City
English FA Cup
11.01.25	Exeter City - Oxford United	3:1 ✺
English League One
04.01.25	Exeter City - Bolton Wanderers	1:2 ✺
01.01.25	Wycombe Wanderers - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
29.12.24	Exeter City - Crawley Town	4:4 ✺
26.12.24	Exeter City - Bristol Rovers	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
10.12.24	Exeter City - Birmingham City	1:2
English League One
26.11.24	Exeter City - Birmingham City	0:2

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