Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 9 August 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alberto J. Armando (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Netherlands	ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra
Portugal	Sport TV3


	Boca Juniors		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	6.5	Watch
	1.58	3.5	6.5
	1.53	3.8	7
	1.6	3.72	7.05
	1.5	3.4	5.8
	1.58	3.68	6.55	Watch
	1.58	3.75	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.65)	3.66 ↓ (3.7)	6.51 ↑ (5.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors
60%

Draw
25.6%

Nacional Montevideo
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

25.3%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

24.1%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	7.1%	5.4%

Boca Juniors - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Boca Juniors will win (49 of 56 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.84% – 96.16%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Romero S. (G) 17. Advincula L. 4. Figal J. 6. Rojo M. 18. Fabra F. 36. Medina C. 5. Varela A. 8. Fernandez G. (C) 19. Barco V. 10. Cavani E. 16. Miguel Merentiel	32. Ichazo S. (G) 16. Lozano L. 2. Bocanegra D. 23. Polenta D. (C) 6. Baez Corradi G. 15. Rodriguez D. 5. Rodriguez Y. 19. Trezza A. 28. Castro Irizábal G. 22. Zabala D. 29. Damiani B.
Substitutes
9. Benedetto D. 42. Blondel L. 49. Campuzano J. 21. Fernandez I. 13. Garcia J. (G) 23. Gonzalez D. 11. Janson L. 2. Roncaglia F. 25. Valdez B. 15. Valentini N. 57. Weigandt M. 7. Zeballos E.	13. Almeida C. 33. Chagas Rodrigo 10. Fagundez F. 9. Gigliotti E. 4. Helguera T. 7. Martinez F. 14. Montiel M. 24. Monzeglio M. 27. Morales L. 3. Perg M. 11. Ramirez I. 25. Suarez I. (G)
Coaches
Almiron J.	Gutierrez A.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-0.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Boca Juniors won 3.

Boca Juniors in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Nacional is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Boca Juniors have a series of guest games.

In this match Boca Juniors is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Boca Juniors to win the game is with odds 1.55.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Boca Juniors won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Boca Juniors won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors
Copa Libertadores
02.08.23	Nacional Montevideo - Boca Juniors	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.07.23	Independiente - Boca Juniors	0:2 ✺
24.07.23	Boca Juniors - Newells Old Boys	2:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
20.07.23	Barracas Central - Boca Juniors	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.07.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Boca Juniors	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWWWW
- Nacional Montevideo
Club Friendly
04.08.23	Fafe - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.08.23	Nacional Montevideo - Boca Juniors	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.07.23	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
15.07.23	Nacional Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1 ✺
09.07.23	Racing Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
02.08.23	Nacional Montevideo - Boca Juniors	0:0
Club Friendly
29.07.17	Boca Juniors - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 penalties
Copa Libertadores
19.05.16	Boca Juniors - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 penalties
12.05.16	Nacional Montevideo - Boca Juniors	1:1
Club Friendly
20.07.14	Nacional Montevideo - Boca Juniors	0:1
Copa Libertadores
14.03.13	Nacional Montevideo - Boca Juniors	0:1
07.03.13	Boca Juniors - Nacional Montevideo	0:1

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