Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 14

Date: 30 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)

Referee: Massimi L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bologna		Venezia

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.6
	1.85	3.45	4.45	Watch
	1.87	3.47	4.84
	1.9	3.43	4.61	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.5
	1.92	3.54	4.71	Watch
	1.88	3.5	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.58)	3.44 ↓ (4.13)	4.59 ↓ (5.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bologna
51.2%

Draw
27.9%

Venezia
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

23.1%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

22%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bologna's form might have worsened.

Venezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bologna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Venezia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.6%	18.9%	7.5%

Bologna - Venezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Bologna will win (votes: 38 - 74.5%). Venezia will win (votes: 3 - 5.9%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 19.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bologna: 62.5% – 86.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Skorupski L. (G) 29. De Silvestri L. (C) 31. Beukema S. 26. Lucumi J. 33. Miranda J. 8. Freuler R. 6. Moro N. 11. Ndoye D. 21. Odgaard J. 10. Karlsson J. 9. Castro S.	35. Stankovic F. (G) 4. Idzes J. 30. Svoboda M. 33. Sverko M. 27. Candela A. 32. Duncan A. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 5. Haps R. 11. Oristanio G. 6. Busio G. 20. Pohjanpalo J. (C)
Substitutes
23. Bagnolini N. (G) 15. Casale N. 16. Corazza T. 24. Dallinga T. 30. Dominguez B. 5. Erlic M. 80. Fabbian G. 19. Ferguson L. 2. Holm E. 14. Iling Junior S. 22. Lykogiannis C. 7. Orsolini R. 3. Posch S. 34. Ravaglia F. (G) 82. Urbanski K.	15. Altare G. 19. Bjarkason B. 12. Bruno (G) 79. Carboni F. 22. Crnigoj D. 97. Doumbia I. 80. El Haddad S. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 23. Grandi M. (G) 9. Gytkjaer C. 45. Raimondo A. 21. Sagrado R. 25. Schingtienne J. 10. Yeboah J.
Coaches
Italiano V.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Ndoye D. (Pen),
27', Sverko M. 🟨,
29', Busio G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Haps R. ↓, Ellertsson M. E. ↑,
50', De Silvestri L. ↓, Holm E. ↑,
52', Duncan A. ↓, Yeboah J. ↑,
64', Karlsson J. ↓, Orsolini R. ↑,
64', Castro S. ↓, Dallinga T. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Orsolini R. (Pen),
71', 3 - 0, Ndoye D. ⚽, Orsolini R. (A),
75', Sverko M. ↓, Altare G. ↑,
75', Yeboah J. ↓, Crnigoj D. ↑,
84', Ndoye D. ↓, Dominguez B. ↑,
84', Odgaard J. ↓, Urbanski K. ↑,
87', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Raimondo A. ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Recent matches Bologna is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Venezia is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Venezia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bologna is a favorite.

There will not play in Bologna: Aebischer M. (Muscle Injury) Cambiaghi N. (Knee Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Knee Injury) Ferguson L. (Knee Injury) Pobega T. (Red Card)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Bologna won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:5 (average 1.5:2.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Bologna won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bologna FC
UEFA Champions League
27.11.24	Bologna - Lille	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
24.11.24	Lazio - Bologna	3:0 ✺
10.11.24	Roma - Bologna	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.24	Bologna - Monaco	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.11.24	Bologna - Lecce	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWLW
- Venezia FC
Italian Serie A
25.11.24	Venezia - Lecce	0:1 ✺
09.11.24	Venezia - Parma	1:2 ✺
03.11.24	Inter Milan - Venezia	1:0 ✺
30.10.24	Venezia - Udinese	3:2 ✺
27.10.24	Monza - Venezia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
08.05.22	Venezia - Bologna	4:3
21.11.21	Bologna - Venezia	0:1

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