Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 28

Date: 23 January 2024, Tuesday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Gill S. (Eng)


	Bolton Wanderers		Cheltenham Town

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.5	7
	1.44	4.4	6.75
	1.47	4.5	6.5
	1.5	4.51	6.68
	1.44	4.71	7.58
	1.4	4.4	7
	1.43	4.65	7.3	Watch
	1.4	4.7	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.51)	4.55 ↑ (4.23)	6.98 ↑ (5.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
65.7%

Draw
20.8%

Cheltenham Town
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.1%

22.1%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

21.5%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.1%	3.2%	9.7%

Bolton Wanderers - Cheltenham Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Bolton Wanderers will win (27 of 31 users predict this - 87.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.3% – 98.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baxter N. (G) 18. Toal E. 5. Santos R. (C) 15. Forrester W. 8. Sheehan J. 12. Dacres-Cogley J. 4. Thomason G. 22. Dempsey K. 3. Iredale J. 10. Charles D. 14. Adeboyejo V.	1. Southwood L. (G) 4. Bradbury T. 33. Davies C. 6. Freestone L. 2. Long S. (C) 34. Pett T. 8. Sercombe L. 15. Ferry W. 23. Bonds E. 19. Lloyd G. 11. Street R.
Substitutes
26. Ashworth Z. 9. Bodvarsson J. 13. Coleman J. (G) 35. Jerome C. 19. Maghoma P. 41. Matheson L. 16. Morley A.	38. Butler-Oyedeji N. 9. Goodwin W. 24. Horton G. 10. Keena A. 21. Pardington J. (G) 22. Smith L. 3. Williams B.
Coaches
Evatt I.	Clarke D.

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bolton won 3.

Bolton in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cheltenham is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cheltenham could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Bolton have a series of guest games.

In this match Bolton is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Bolton to win the game is with odds 1.39.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Bolton won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Bolton won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
20.01.24	Leyton Orient - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
16.01.24	Bolton Wanderers - Luton Town	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.01.24	Accrington Stanley - Bolton Wanderers	1:3 ✺
English FA Cup
07.01.24	Luton Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
English League One
01.01.24	Bolton Wanderers - Burton Albion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWTW
- Cheltenham Town
English League One
06.01.24	Cheltenham Town - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
01.01.24	Northampton Town - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
29.12.23	Cheltenham Town - Reading	2:2 ✺
26.12.23	Cheltenham Town - Shrewsbury Town	2:0 ✺
23.12.23	Carlisle United - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
12.08.23	Cheltenham Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:3
04.02.23	Bolton Wanderers - Cheltenham Town	1:0
04.10.22	Cheltenham Town - Bolton Wanderers	1:0
23.04.22	Cheltenham Town - Bolton Wanderers	1:2
27.11.21	Bolton Wanderers - Cheltenham Town	2:2
English League Two
16.01.21	Bolton Wanderers - Cheltenham Town	1:1
15.12.20	Cheltenham Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:1

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