Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 26

Date: 1 January 2024, Monday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Hair N. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Cheltenham Town

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.4
	2.15	3.2	3.4
	2.25	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3.26	3.55
	2.25	3.26	3.55
	2.15	3.3	3.2
	2.13	3.38	3.41	Watch
	2.12	3.25	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (1.73)	3.26 ↓ (3.59)	3.4 ↓ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
43.3%

Draw
28.9%

Cheltenham Town
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

26.1%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

25.5%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Northampton Town's form might have worsened.

Cheltenham Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cheltenham Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Northampton Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cheltenham Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	6.2%	0%

Northampton Town - Cheltenham Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Northampton Town will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thompson M. (G) 3. McGowan A. (C) 15. Willis J. 22. Odimayo A. 33. Brough P. 19. Bowie K. 17. McWilliams S. 21. Leonard M. 23. Hondermarck W. 11. Pinnock M. 16. Simpson T.	1. Southwood L. (G) 22. Smith L. 4. Bradbury T. 6. Freestone L. 2. Long S. (C) 23. Bonds E. 14. Thompson C. 34. Pett T. 15. Ferry W. 9. Goodwin W. 19. Lloyd G.
Substitutes
27. Abimbola P. 1. Burge L. (G) 5. Guthrie J. 10. Hylton D. 20. Lintott H. 12. Monthe M. 4. Sowerby J.	38. Butler-Oyedeji N. 33. Davies C. 7. Hammond O. 10. Keena A. 21. Pardington J. (G) 8. Sercombe L. 3. Williams B.
Coaches
Brady J.	Clarke D.

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 10 and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Northampton won 2.

Northampton is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Cheltenham is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Northampton will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Northampton won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 18-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Northampton won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League One
29.12.23	Lincoln City - Northampton Town	1:2 ✺
26.12.23	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	3:0 ✺
23.12.23	Northampton Town - Oxford United	2:1 ✺
16.12.23	Carlisle United - Northampton Town	2:2 ✺
09.12.23	Northampton Town - Fleetwood Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WLWTW
- Cheltenham Town
English League One
29.12.23	Cheltenham Town - Reading	2:2 ✺
26.12.23	Cheltenham Town - Shrewsbury Town	2:0 ✺
23.12.23	Carlisle United - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
16.12.23	Cheltenham Town - Leyton Orient	1:2 ✺
09.12.23	Bristol Rovers - Cheltenham Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.08.23	Cheltenham Town - Northampton Town	0:1
English League Two
22.06.20	Cheltenham Town - Northampton Town	0:3
18.06.20	Northampton Town - Cheltenham Town	0:2
25.02.20	Cheltenham Town - Northampton Town	2:1
29.12.19	Northampton Town - Cheltenham Town	1:1
23.03.19	Cheltenham Town - Northampton Town	3:1
08.09.18	Northampton Town - Cheltenham Town	1:3

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