Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY

Date: 5 September 2023, Tuesday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Jackson A. (Eng)


	Bolton Wanderers		Salford City

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	5.6
	1.4	4.63	7.59
	1.44	3.9	5.8
	1.38	4.75	7.2
	1.4	4.5	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.64)	4.34 ↑ (3.75)	6.52 ↑ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
64.6%

Draw
21.2%

Salford City
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

24.3%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

23.5%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bolton Wanderers's performance.

Salford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Salford City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bolton Wanderers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salford City than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Salford City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	7.1%	0%

Bolton Wanderers - Salford City Predictions

Users Predictions: Bolton Wanderers will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baxter N. (G) 5. Santos R. (C) 15. Forrester W. 3. Iredale J. 12. Cogley J. 19. Maghoma P. 16. Morley A. 27. Williams R. 9. Bodvarsson J. 7. Mendes Gomes C. 11. N'Lundulu D.	13. Wright J. (G) 2. Ingram E. 42. Vassell T. 23. Berkoe K. 24. Bolton L. 46. Collins B. 7. Watson R. 8. Lund M. (C) 4. Ashley O. 36. Dackers M. 11. McLennan C.
Substitutes
14. Adeboyejo V. 40. Hutchinson L. (G) 35. Jerome C. 2. Jones G. 38. Khumbeni N. 41. Matheson L. 4. Thomason G.	1. Cairns A. (G) 9. Hendry C. 47. Humbles L. 18. McAleny C. 50. Olopade T. 17. Smith M. 16. Tilt C.
Coaches
Evatt I.	Wood N.

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Bolton have a series of home games.

In this match Bolton is certain favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bolton won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Bolton won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
02.09.23	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
29.08.23	Bolton Wanderers - Middlesbrough	1:3 ✺
English League One
26.08.23	Burton Albion - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
19.08.23	Bolton Wanderers - Wigan Athletic	0:4 ✺
15.08.23	Bolton Wanderers - Fleetwood Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLTLW
- Salford City
English League Two
02.09.23	Morecambe - Salford City	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
29.08.23	Salford City - Leeds United	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Two
26.08.23	Salford City - Accrington Stanley	1:2 ✺
19.08.23	Tranmere Rovers - Salford City	3:4 ✺
15.08.23	Grimsby Town - Salford City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
22.07.23	Salford City - Bolton Wanderers	1:2
English League Cup
09.08.22	Bolton Wanderers - Salford City	5:1
English League Two
13.04.21	Salford City - Bolton Wanderers	0:1
13.11.20	Bolton Wanderers - Salford City	2:0

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