Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

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	Tondela		Braga

	1	X	2
	6.25	3.9	1.49	Watch
	6.4	3.95	1.52	Watch
	6.46	4.15	1.52	Watch
	6	3.8	1.53
	6.49	4.1	1.58	Watch
	6.33	4	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.32 ↑ (4.98)	3.98 ↑ (3.6)	1.53 ↓ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
14.9%

Draw
23.6%

Braga
61.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

25.8%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.8%

24.6%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Braga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	0%	92.9%

Tondela - Braga Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Braga (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Braga will win (26 of 28 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.32% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Braga will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Braga (votes: 13 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 20. Medina B. 4. Marques C. 27. Conceicao R. 15. Sithole S. 97. Cicero 60. Maviram E. 79. Felix H. 90. Aiko M. 7. Pedro Maranhao	1. Hornicek L. (G) 14. Lagerbielke G. 6. Vitor Carvalho 4. Niakate S. 20. Dorgeles M. 8. Moutinho J. 27. Grillitsch F. 5. Lelo L. 10. Zalazar R. 18. Victor P. 21. Horta R. (C)
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 10. Hodge J. 48. Manso T. 70. Moudjatovic M. 19. Rodrigues A. 32. Rodriguez J. 29. Siebatcheu J. 8. Tavares H.	26. Arrey-Mbi B. 36. Bellaarouch A. (G) 17. Gabriel Moscardo 2. Gomez V. 29. Gorby 77. Martinez G. 39. Navarro F. 15. Oliveira P. 50. Rodrigues D.
Coaches
Bacci C.	Vicens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Medina B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', Grillitsch F. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
64', Victor P. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
67', Lagerbielke G. 🟨,
73', Dorgeles M. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
73', Lelo L. ↓, Gomez V. ↑,
81', Vitor Carvalho 🟨,
82', Lagerbielke G. 🟨,
86', Felix H. (Penalty Awarded),
87', Felix H. ↓, Ouattara M. ↑,
87', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
88', Vitor Carvalho ↓, Arrey-Mbi B. ↑,
90', Bebeto 🟨,
90+2', 0 - 1, Zalazar R. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Bebeto ↓, Siebatcheu J. ↑,
90+3', Sithole S. ↓, Rodrigues A. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0.

Tondela is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Braga has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tondela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Braga has had a series of away games.

In this match, Braga is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Braga: El Ouazzani A. (Foot Injury) Vidigal S. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 11:34. (average 0.6:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.6:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11

Last Results with these Odds

Braga - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 55.5%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
11.01.26	Moreirense - Tondela	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Tondela - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
15.12.25	Nacional - Tondela	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Tondela - Porto	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL
- SC Braga
Taça de Portugal
14.01.26	Fafe - Braga	2:1 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
10.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	2:1 ✺
07.01.26	Benfica - Braga	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.01.26	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	3:3 ✺
28.12.25	Braga - Benfica	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
10.08.25	Braga - Tondela	3:0
20.02.22	Tondela - Braga	0:1
20.09.21	Braga - Tondela	3:1
21.02.21	Braga - Tondela	4:2
03.10.20	Tondela - Braga	0:4
20.07.20	Tondela - Braga	1:0
12.01.20	Braga - Tondela	2:1

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