Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Alverca		Moreirense

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.85	3.4	Watch
	2.52	2.78	3.2	Watch
	2.38	2.96	3.4	Watch
	2.4	2.8	3.25
	2.44	2.98	3.5	Watch
	2.45	2.75	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.41)	2.85 ↓ (2.94)	3.36 ↑ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
38.9%

Draw
33%

Moreirense
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

31.3%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

30%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.4%	31.6%	21.1%

Alverca - Moreirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Moreirense will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alverca: 24.9% – 69.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Gomes A. (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 21. Abdulai S. 8. Amorim 55. Chissumba 18. Lincoln 91. Sandro Lima 20. Figueiredo	13. Ferreira A. (G) 76. Pinto D. (C) 3. Michel 26. Maracas 17. Martinez A. 11. Alanzinho 25. Assis A. 21. Rodri 2. Travassos 9. Semedo L. 10. Kiko Bondoso
Substitutes
14. Clairicia M. 6. Gui D. 12. James I. 37. Kauan 9. Marezi 3. Martinez J. 31. Mateus Oliveira (G) 17. Moreira V. 11. Nuozzi C.	66. Batista G. 20. Bernardo 30. Gower J. 27. Kiko 78. Landerson 16. Mika (G) 8. Stjepanovic M. 7. Teguia C. 99. Yan Maranhao
Coaches
Custodio	Costa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', Michel 🟨,
60', 1 - 0, Touaizi N. (Penalty Awarded),
62', 1 - 1, Rodri ⚽,
70', 2 - 1, Sandro Lima ⚽, Touaizi N. (A),
70', Rodri ↓, Yan Maranhao ↑,
71', Assis A. ↓, Stjepanovic M. ↑,
74', Lincoln ↓, Gui D. ↑,
74', Sandro Lima ↓, Marezi ↑,
77', Martinez A. ↓, Landerson ↑,
84', Gomes A. 🟨,
85', Abdulai S. ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
90', Amorim ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
90', Touaizi N. ↓, Kauan ↑,
90+3', Figueiredo 🟨,
90+5', Gui D. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 6).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Moreirense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Alverca will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Alverca: Diarra S. (Muscle Injury) Leo Chu (Injury) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury) Paulo A. (Injury)

There will not play in Moreirense: Sousa V. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Alverca: Marezi (Inactive)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Ofori L. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alverca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8:15	-7	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
04.01.26	Alverca - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Estoril Praia - Alverca	4:1 ✺
22.12.25	Alverca - Porto	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Arouca - Alverca	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Alverca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLLLW
- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
11.01.26	Moreirense - Tondela	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	AVS - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
20.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Moreirense - Benfica	0:4 ✺
07.12.25	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
10.08.25	Moreirense - Alverca	2:1

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