Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 1 - ROUND 15

Date: 13 November 2022, Sunday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Buquet R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2, Canal+ Sport 5


	Brest		Troyes

	1	X	2
	2	3.6	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.4
	1.98	3.55	3.75
	2.03	3.6	3.45
	2.07	3.66	3.75
	2	3.5	3.6	Watch
	2	3.65	3.62	Watch
	2.06	3.7	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.11)	3.61 ↑ (3.51)	3.57 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
47%

Draw
26.4%

Troyes
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

26.9%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

26%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Troyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60.6%	9.1%	30.3%

Brest - Troyes Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 20 - 60.6%). Troyes will win (votes: 10 - 30.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 43.9% – 77.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 13).

Brest has the most likely position - 20 (13.9%), has project points - 37, has currently - 10, has a chance of relegated (50%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Troyes has the most likely position - 14 (9.22%), has project points - 42, has currently - 14, has a chance of relegated (28%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 53, importance 46, match rating 49. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Brest won 2.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Troyes could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Brest will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Brest: Uronen J. (Injury)

There will not play in Troyes: Agoume L. (Muscle Injury) Moulin J. (Injury) Rami A. (Injury) Tardieu F. (Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Brest won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 19-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Brest won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
06.11.22	Nice - Brest	1:0 ✺
30.10.22	Brest - Reims	0:0 ✺
23.10.22	Clermont - Brest	1:3 ✺
16.10.22	Nantes - Brest	4:1 ✺
09.10.22	Brest - Lorient	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTWLL
- Troyes AC
French Ligue 1
04.11.22	Troyes - Auxerre	1:1 ✺
29.10.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Troyes	4:3 ✺
23.10.22	Troyes - Lorient	2:2 ✺
16.10.22	Troyes - Ajaccio	1:1 ✺
09.10.22	Nice - Troyes	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
13.02.22	Brest - Troyes	5:1
22.12.21	Troyes - Brest	1:1
French Ligue 2
12.01.19	Brest - Troyes	1:1
03.08.18	Troyes - Brest	1:2
29.04.17	Troyes - Brest	1:0
29.11.16	Brest - Troyes	2:1
15.05.15	Brest - Troyes	2:1

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