Match Info

Premier League - Round 7

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
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Denmark	See, Viaplay
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World	Sport 24, Sport 24 At Sea


	Newcastle United		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	6
	1.57	4.2	5.5
	1.52	4.6	6.1
	1.54	4.5	6.22
	1.54	4.31	5.46	Watch
	1.58	4.6	6.02	Watch
	1.55	4.35	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.68)	4.44 ↑ (4.11)	5.83 ↑ (4.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
62%

Draw
21.6%

Nottingham Forest
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

23.2%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

22.7%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.7%	9.6%	8.7%

Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Newcastle (2.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Newcastle (2.38) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Nottingham (2.50) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Newcastle United will win (84 of 103 users predict this - 81.55%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.06% – 89.04%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (46 of 51 users predict this - 90.2%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 57 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 48 - 84.2%). Nottingham (votes: 8 - 14%). Tie (votes: 1 - 1.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 20. Elanga A. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.	26. Sels M. (G) 31. Milenkovic N. 23. Cunha 4. Morato 37. Savona N. 8. Anderson E. 22. Yates R. (C) 3. Williams N. 14. Ndoye D. 11. Wood Ch. 10. Gibbs-White M.
Substitutes
11. Barnes H. 17. Krafth E. 6. Lascelles J. 67. Miley L. 23. Murphy J. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 5. Schar F. 28. Willock J.	29. Bakwa D. 16. Dominguez N. 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 21. Hutchinson O. 19. Igor Jesus 13. John Victor (G) 24. McAtee J. 5. Murillo 6. Sangare I.
Coaches
Howe E.	Postecoglou A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Yates R. 🟨,
34', Williams N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', 1 - 0, Bruno Guimaraes ⚽, Burn D. (A),
64', Wood Ch. ↓, Igor Jesus ↑,
64', Yates R. ↓, Hudson-Odoi C. ↑,
65', Ndoye D. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
68', Morato 🟨,
70', Gordon A. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
70', Elanga A. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
77', Morato ↓, Bakwa D. ↑,
83', Anderson E. 🟨,
84', 2 - 0, Woltemade N. (Pen),
90+2', Joelinton ↓, Miley L. ↑,
90+2', Woltemade N. ↓, Osula W. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 15 and 17)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 4.

Recent performances by Newcastle have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nottingham is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nottingham may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Newcastle is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Livramento V. (Knee Injury) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Nottingham: Aina O. (Hamstring Injury) Douglas Luiz (Hamstring Injury) Zinchenko O. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Ramsey J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Murillo (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:20. (average 2.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 2.4:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Saint-Gilloise - Newcastle United	0:4 ✺
English Premier League
28.09.25	Newcastle United - Arsenal	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.25	Newcastle United - Bradford City	4:1 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.25	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Newcastle United - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWTL
- Nottingham Forest
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Nottingham Forest - Midtjylland	2:3 ✺
English Premier League
27.09.25	Nottingham Forest - Sunderland	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	Betis - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
17.09.25	Swansea City - Nottingham Forest	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
23.02.25	Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest	4:3
10.11.24	Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United	1:3
English League Cup
28.08.24	Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United	1:2 penalties
English Premier League
10.02.24	Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United	2:3
26.12.23	Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest	1:3
17.03.23	Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United	1:2
06.08.22	Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest	2:0

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