Match Info

Championship - Round 27

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Robinson T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Oxford United		Bristol City

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.24	3.53	2.17	Watch
	3.26	3.49	2.18	Watch
	3.25	3.2	2.15
	3.47	3.5	2.19	Watch
	3.33	3.33	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.89)	3.41 ↑ (3.36)	2.18 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
28.8%

Draw
27.8%

Bristol City
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

28.1%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

29.4%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Bristol City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oxford United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bristol City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	27.3%	54.5%

Oxford United - Bristol City Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Bristol City will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bristol City: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol City (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Bristol City (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol City (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 6. Helik M. 3. Brown C. 26. Currie J. 5. Konak Y. E. 14. De Keersmaecker B. 17. Mills S. 8. Brannagan C. 44. Peart-Harris M. 27. Lankshear W.	23. Vitek R. (G) 14. Vyner Z. 16. Dickie R. (C) 5. Atkinson R. 19. Tanner G. 4. Randell A. 40. Morsy S. 21. Neto Borges 10. Twine S. 18. Riis E. 11. Mehmeti A.
Substitutes
23. Dembele S. 9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 50. Krastev F. 22. Leigh G. 10. Phillips M. 15. Spencer B. 11. ter Haar Romeny O. 4. Vaulks W.	30. Armstrong S. 20. Bell S. 44. Earthy G. 7. Hirakawa Y. 13. Lumley J. (G) 29. Pecover L. 3. Pring C. 24. Roberts H. 32. Thomas L. (G)
Coaches
Bloomfield M.	Struber G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Mills S. 🟨,
25', Morsy S. 🟨,
29', Konak Y. E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Twine S. ↓, Earthy G. ↑,
46', Konak Y. E. ↓, Vaulks W. ↑,
53', Dickie R. 🟨,
62', Riis E. ↓, Armstrong S. ↑,
63', Mehmeti A. ↓, Hirakawa Y. ↑,
74', Neto Borges ↓, Pring C. ↑,
79', Pring C. 🟨,
80', Peart-Harris M. ↓, Phillips M. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Bristol City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bristol City will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bristol City: Bird M. (Calf Injury) Mayulu F. (Inactive) McNally L. (Knee Injury) Sykes M. (Hip Injury) Vitek R. (Knee Injury) Williams J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Oxford: Donley J. (Injury) Golding J. (Inactive) Goodrham T. (Injury) ter Avest H. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:14. (average 1.5:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Oxford won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Bristol City: 1.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12:13	-1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Oxford United - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.69%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English FA Cup
09.01.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Oxford United	1:2 penalties ✺
English League Championship
01.01.26	Ipswich Town - Oxford United	2:1 ✺
29.12.25	Oxford United - Swansea City	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Oxford United - Southampton	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Charlton Athletic - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLLWL
- Bristol City
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Bristol City - Watford	5:1 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.26	Bristol City - Preston North End	0:2 ✺
01.01.26	Bristol City - Portsmouth	5:0 ✺
29.12.25	Millwall - Bristol City	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	West Bromwich Albion - Bristol City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
21.09.25	Bristol City - Oxford United	1:3
01.02.25	Oxford United - Bristol City	1:1
21.09.24	Bristol City - Oxford United	2:1
English League Cup
09.08.23	Bristol City - Oxford United	5:1
Club Friendly
22.07.23	Bristol City - Oxford United	4:1
English League Cup
12.08.14	Bristol City - Oxford United	1:2

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