Match Info

League Two - Round 40

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Memorial Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Bristol Rovers		Accrington Stanley

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.2
	1.75	3.55	4.45	Watch
	1.79	3.66	4.6
	1.75	3.55	4.63	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.5
	1.74	3.56	4.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.83)	3.55 ↑ (3.48)	4.53 ↑ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol Rovers
53.2%

Draw
26.3%

Accrington Stanley
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

26.6%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

25.3%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Accrington Stanley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	10.5%	15.8%

Bristol Rovers - Accrington Stanley Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Bristol Rovers will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Accrington will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bristol Rovers: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol Rovers (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Young B. (G) 17. Balmer K. 5. Kilgour A. (C) 26. Harbottle R. 2. Senior J. 36. Smallwood R. 6. Mola C. 3. Sparkes J. 24. Leigh T. 27. Quigley J. 29. Cavegn F.	13. Wright O. (G) 17. Matthews D. 5. Rawson F. 2. Love D. 38. O'Brien C. 28. Conneely S. (C) 8. Madden P. 20. Brown C. 11. Sinclair I. 7. Whalley S. 39. Woods J.
Substitutes
15. De Havilland R. 7. Forde S. 19. Harrison E. 35. Rijks M. 1. Southwood L. (G) 11. Thomas L. 14. Thompson-Sommers K.	27. Abimbola D. 24. Butterfield L. 1. Kelly M. (G) 22. Martin D. 3. Sass F. 25. Smith J. 23. Walton T.
Coaches
Evans S.	Doolan J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Harbottle R. ⚽, Balmer K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Harbottle R. 🟨,
52', Matthews D. 🟨,
53', 2 - 0, Sparkes J. ⚽,
54', Matthews D. ↓, Sass F. ↑,
62', Brown C. ↓, Walton T. ↑,
66', Cavegn F. ↓, Rijks M. ↑,
66', Leigh T. ↓, Forde S. ↑,
67', Rijks M. 🟨,
75', Madden P. ↓, Abimbola D. ↑,
75', O'Brien C. ↓, Martin D. ↑,
80', Sass F. 🟨,
83', Walton T. 🟨,
90+1', Quigley J. ↓, Harrison E. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 17 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bristol Rovers won 1.

Bristol Rovers is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Accrington is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Bristol Rovers is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Bristol Rovers: McEachran J. (Inactive) Omochere P. (Inactive) Southam-Hales M. (Injury)

There will not play in Accrington: Coyle L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Bristol Rovers: Rijks M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Accrington: Grant C. (Inactive) Heath I. (Inactive) Mooney K. (Inactive)

We predict that Bristol Rovers will win today's game, with odds of 1.77.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Bristol Rovers won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 11:25. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bristol Rovers won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1:1.3).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Bristol Rovers: 8.17% Accrington: 0.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	15:17	-2	15
15	Accrington	10	2	5	3	13:14	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Accrington Stanley - the odds 4.09 are the expected chance of winning is 22.67%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol Rovers
English League Two
21.03.26	Gillingham - Bristol Rovers	1:2 ✺
17.03.26	Bristol Rovers - Shrewsbury Town	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Bromley - Bristol Rovers	1:0 ✺
10.03.26	Barrow - Bristol Rovers	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Bristol Rovers - Crewe Alexandra	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WWLWW
- Accrington Stanley
English League Two
21.03.26	Accrington Stanley - Chesterfield	0:1 ✺
17.03.26	Accrington Stanley - Notts County	0:4 ✺
14.03.26	Barrow - Accrington Stanley	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Accrington Stanley - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Bromley - Accrington Stanley	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
15.11.25	Accrington Stanley - Bristol Rovers	3:1
English League One
14.01.23	Accrington Stanley - Bristol Rovers	2:0
24.09.22	Bristol Rovers - Accrington Stanley	0:1
09.03.21	Bristol Rovers - Accrington Stanley	4:1
02.02.21	Accrington Stanley - Bristol Rovers	6:1
07.09.19	Bristol Rovers - Accrington Stanley	3:3
12.01.19	Accrington Stanley - Bristol Rovers	0:0

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