Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Burnley		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	2.15
	3.25	3.4	2.2
	3.45	3.4	2.18
	3.65	3.42	2.2
	4.27	2.63	2.23	Watch
	3.6	3.5	2
	3.47	3.37	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.6 ↑ (3.42)	3.29 ↓ (3.52)	2.17 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
26.7%

Draw
29.2%

Nottingham Forest
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

27.2%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

27.7%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.6%	19.4%	58.1%

Burnley - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 7 - 23.3%). Nottingham will win (votes: 18 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nottingham: 42.5% – 77.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Burnley (1.66) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - Burnley (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nottingham Forest will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 2 - 25%). Nottingham (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. 18. Ekdal H. 5. Esteve M. 3. Hartman Q. 24. Cullen J. (C) 16. Florentino 29. Laurent J. 17. Tchaouna L. 9. Foster L. 11. Anthony J.	26. Sels M. (G) 3. Williams N. 31. Milenkovic N. 4. Morato 35. Zinchenko O. 12. Douglas Luiz 8. Anderson E. 29. Bakwa D. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 14. Ndoye D. 11. Wood Ch.
Substitutes
35. Barnes A. 27. Broja A. 10. Edwards M. 19. Flemming Z. 12. Humphreys B. 23. Lucas Pires 28. Mejbri H. 13. Weiss M. (G) 4. Worrall J.	23. Cunha 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 21. Hutchinson O. 19. Igor Jesus 13. John Victor (G) 15. Kalimuendo A. 24. McAtee J. 6. Sangare I. 22. Yates R.
Coaches
Parker S.	Postecoglou A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Williams N. ⚽,
16', Florentino 🟨,
20', 1 - 1, Anthony J. ⚽, Foster L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Bakwa D. ↓, Hudson-Odoi C. ↑,
76', Wood Ch. ↓, Igor Jesus ↑,
76', Douglas Luiz ↓, Kalimuendo A. ↑,
76', Ndoye D. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,
81', Tchaouna L. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
86', Foster L. ↓, Flemming Z. ↑,
90+2', Morato 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 2.

In recent matches, Burnley has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nottingham is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nottingham may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nottingham could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury) Ugochukwu L. (Red Card)

There will not play in Nottingham: Aina O. (Hamstring Injury) Dominguez N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Bruun Larsen J. (Knock)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Murillo (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
14.09.25	Burnley - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Manchester United - Burnley	3:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Burnley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Burnley - Sunderland	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Burnley	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWWL
- Nottingham Forest
English League Cup
17.09.25	Swansea City - Nottingham Forest	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Arsenal - Nottingham Forest	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Nottingham Forest - West Ham United	0:3 ✺
24.08.25	Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Nottingham Forest - Brentford	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
19.05.24	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:2
18.09.23	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	1:1
English League Cup
30.08.23	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	0:1
Club Friendly
29.07.17	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	1:1
English League Championship
23.02.16	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:0
20.10.15	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	1:1
22.02.14	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	3:1

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