Match Info

FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Abbey Stadium (Cambridge)

Referee: Corlett M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cambridge United		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.5	1.81
	4.33	3.6	1.73
	4.45	3.45	1.85
	4.87	2.80	2.00	Watch
	4	3.25	1.83
	4.43	3.4	1.83	Watch
	4.33	3.4	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.37 ↑ (4.3)	3.34 ↓ (3.64)	1.84 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambridge United
21.4%

Draw
27.9%

Birmingham City
50.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

25.8%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

25.2%

51.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambridge United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	9.1%	81.8%

Cambridge United - Birmingham City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Cambridge (4.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Birmingham City will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Birmingham City will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Cambridge (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Birmingham (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Eastwood J. (G) 2. Bennett L. 23. Jobe M. 16. Ibsen Rossi Z. 26. Gibbons J. 4. Ball D. (C) 38. Hoddle G. 14. Knight B. 17. Mpanzu P. 7. Brophy J. 9. Appere L.	25. Beadle J. (G) 24. Iwata T. 4. Klarer C. (C) 6. Robinson J. 31. Wagner K. 7. Doyle T. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 16. Roberts P. 33. Ducksch M. 30. Koumas L. 9. Furuhashi K.
Substitutes
25. Hughes B. (G) 10. Kachunga E. 11. Kaikai S. 19. Lavery S. 27. McConnell G. 39. McDougald L. 21. McLoughlin S. 5. Morrison M. 3. Purrington B.	21. Allsop R. (G) 39. Bateman B. 45. Burrell B. 27. Fujimoto K. 42. Isichei D. 40. Mazwi M. 5. Neumann P. 23. Sampsted A. 18. Willumsson W. T.
Coaches
Harris N.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
31', 0 - 1, Wagner K. ⚽,
42', 0 - 2, Furuhashi K. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
63', Brophy J. ↓, Kaikai S. ↑,
63', Ball D. ↓, Lavery S. ↑,
74', Gibbons J. ↓, Purrington B. ↑,
74', Mpanzu P. ↓, McLoughlin S. ↑,
75', Roberts P. ↓, Willumsson W. T. ↑,
75', Furuhashi K. ↓, Fujimoto K. ↑,
77', Robinson J. ↓, Neumann P. ↑,
78', 0 - 3, Ducksch M. ⚽, Doyle T. (A),
80', 1 - 3, Kaikai S. ⚽,
88', Hoddle G. 🟨,
89', 2 - 3, Kaikai S. ⚽, Jobe M. (A),
90+2', Koumas L. ↓, Sampsted A. ↑,

Preview

Cambridge is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Birmingham has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Birmingham may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Birmingham is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cambridge won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.8:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Cambridge won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Birmingham: 0.51%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cambridge United
English League Two
01.01.26	Cambridge United - Walsall	2:0 ✺
29.12.25	Chesterfield - Cambridge United	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Gillingham - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
19.12.25	Cambridge United - Accrington Stanley	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWTWT
- Birmingham City
English League Championship
04.01.26	Birmingham City - Coventry City	3:2 ✺
01.01.26	Watford - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
29.12.25	Birmingham City - Southampton	1:1 ✺
26.12.25	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Sheffield United - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
03.05.25	Cambridge United - Birmingham City	1:2
11.02.25	Birmingham City - Cambridge United	4:0
English League Cup
05.09.20	Birmingham City - Cambridge United	0:1
12.08.14	Birmingham City - Cambridge United	3:1 ET

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