Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 22

Date: 16 December 2023, Saturday


	Carlisle United		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.25	2.63
	2.65	3.25	2.6
	2.8	3.25	2.55	Watch
	2.9	3.24	2.63
	2.9	3.24	2.63
	2.7	3.2	2.5
	2.78	3.25	2.53	Watch
	2.75	3.2	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.59)	3.24 ↑ (3.19)	2.58 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
34%

Draw
29.2%

Northampton Town
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

29.7%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

31.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Carlisle United - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Northampton will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carlisle: 2.5% – 64.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Holy T. (G) 32. Emmanuel J. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 3. Armer J. 19. Robinson J. 21. McGeouch D. 10. McCalmont A. 27. Plange L. 14. Garner J. 7. Gibson J.	26. Thompson M. (G) 22. Odimayo A. 6. Sherring S. 5. Guthrie J. (C) 33. Brough P. 17. McWilliams S. 4. Sowerby J. 7. Hoskins S. 21. Leonard M. 11. Pinnock M. 19. Bowie K.
Substitutes
26. Barclay B. 13. Breeze G. (G) 11. Butterworth D. 9. Edmondson R. 29. Fitzpatrick A. 24. Maguire S. 17. Whelan C.	36. Dadge J. (G) 24. Haynes R. 23. Hondermarck W. 3. McGowan A. 12. Monthe M. 16. Simpson T. 15. Willis J.
Coaches
Simpson P.	Brady J.

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.

Carlisle is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Northampton is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Carlisle could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 12-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League One
09.12.23	Blackpool - Carlisle United	3:0 ✺
28.11.23	Reading - Carlisle United	5:1 ✺
25.11.23	Carlisle United - Charlton Athletic	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
14.11.23	Carlisle United - Harrogate Town	2:0 ✺
English League One
11.11.23	Carlisle United - Bristol Rovers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLTWL
- Northampton Town
English League One
09.12.23	Northampton Town - Fleetwood Town	3:0 ✺
02.12.23	Northampton Town - Portsmouth	0:3 ✺
28.11.23	Blackpool - Northampton Town	1:2 ✺
25.11.23	Northampton Town - Cambridge United	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
21.11.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Northampton Town	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
15.04.23	Carlisle United - Northampton Town	0:0
20.12.22	Northampton Town - Carlisle United	2:1
12.03.22	Carlisle United - Northampton Town	2:1
30.10.21	Northampton Town - Carlisle United	3:0
22.10.19	Carlisle United - Northampton Town	0:2
12.01.19	Northampton Town - Carlisle United	3:0
11.08.18	Carlisle United - Northampton Town	2:2

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