Match Info

FA Cup - 1/128-finals

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Select Car Leasing Stadium (Reading)


	Reading		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.8	4.33
	1.50	4.06	6.11	Watch
	1.76	3.75	4.3	Watch
	1.49	4.5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.63)	4.03 ↑ (3.78)	5.19 ↑ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Reading
58.4%

Draw
23.4%

Carlisle United
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

24.2%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

25.1%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Reading has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Reading than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Reading - Carlisle United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Reading (1.85) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Reading will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Reading will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Reading (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Carlisle (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Stevens J. (G) 17. Yiadom A. 22. Stickland M. 3. Dorsett A. J. R. 5. Jacob M. 10. Wing L. (C) 8. Savage C. 11. Kyerewaa D. 29. Doyle K. 32. Lane P. 9. Ehibhatiomhan K.	25. Lewis H. (G) 22. Williams J. 6. Hayden A. 5. Feeney M. (C) 3. Harper C. 20. Gilliead A. 37. Macadam H. 11. Luamba J. 38. Conn-Clarke C. 7. Ajiboye D. 29. Armstrong L.
Substitutes
2. Abrefa K. 39. Ahmed A. 6. Borgnis J. 28. Camara M. 19. Garcia A. 31. Norcott T. (G) 20. O'Mahony M. 4. Spencer S. 26. Tuma B.	1. Breeze G. (G) 2. Davies A. 24. Grant J. 9. Kelly G. 10. Linney R. 15. Murray S. 4. Thomas T. 16. Wearne S. 8. Whelan C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Wing L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', Yiadom A. 🟨,
61', Yiadom A. ↓, Abrefa K. ↑,
66', Lane P. ↓, O'Mahony M. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, O'Mahony M. ⚽, Doyle K. (A),
69', Ajiboye D. ↓, Linney R. ↑,
69', Armstrong L. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
69', Macadam H. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,
80', Luamba J. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
80', Gilliead A. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
81', Kyerewaa D. ↓, Camara M. ↑,
81', Ehibhatiomhan K. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
83', Garcia A. 🟨,
90+2', Savage C. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 1, Linney R. ⚽,
90+8', 2 - 2, Linney R. ⚽, Conn-Clarke C. (A),
Extra Time (0 - 1)
94', 2 - 3, Linney R. ⚽, Wearne S. (A),
104', Abrefa K. 🟨,
111', Conn-Clarke C. ↓, Grant J. ↑,
111', Doyle K. ↓, Tuma B. ↑,
113', Hayden A. 🟨,
115', Linney R. 🟨,

Preview

Reading has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Carlisle is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Carlisle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Reading is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Reading won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 4:1).

Including home match between the teams, Reading won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Reading
English League One
25.10.25	Reading - Doncaster Rovers	1:1 ✺
21.10.25	Reading - Northampton Town	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Cardiff City - Reading	2:1 ✺
11.10.25	Exeter City - Reading	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Reading - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWLTW
- Carlisle United
English National League
25.10.25	Yeovil Town - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	4:2 ✺
English FA Cup
11.10.25	Carlisle United - Boston United	5:2 ✺
English National League
04.10.25	Scunthorpe United - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
01.10.25	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
02.03.24	Carlisle United - Reading	1:3
28.11.23	Reading - Carlisle United	5:1

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