Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 13

Date: 2 December 2023, Saturday


	Northampton Town		Portsmouth

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.6	2.25
	3	3.4	2.2
	3.1	3.4	2.25	Watch
	3.2	3.51	2.29
	3.2	3.51	2.29
	3	3.5	2.15
	3.13	3.38	2.24	Watch
	3.05	3.45	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↓ (3.76)	3.47 ↓ (3.56)	2.24 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
30.5%

Draw
27.2%

Portsmouth
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

26.2%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

25.9%

49.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Northampton Town's performance.

Portsmouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Portsmouth might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Northampton Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portsmouth could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	25%	58.3%

Northampton Town - Portsmouth Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Northampton will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Portsmouth will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portsmouth: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thompson M. (G) 3. McGowan A. 15. Willis J. 6. Sherring S. 33. Brough P. 11. Pinnock M. 4. Sowerby J. 17. McWilliams S. 21. Leonard M. 19. Bowie K. 7. Hoskins S.	1. Norris W. (G) 17. Rafferty J. 20. Raggett S. 18. Shaughnessy C. 21. Sparkes J. 25. Kamara A. 8. Robertson A. 15. Saydee C. 7. Pack M. 32. Lane P. 19. Yengi K.
Substitutes
9. Appere L. 36. Dadge J. (G) 5. Guthrie J. 24. Haynes R. 23. Hondermarck W. 12. Monthe M. 16. Simpson T.	24. Devlin T. 29. Martin J. 31. Schofield R. (G) 14. Stevenson B. 2. Swanson Z. 4. Towler R. 11. Whyte G.
Coaches
Brady J.	Mousinho J.

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Northampton won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Northampton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Portsmouth will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Northampton won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 15-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Northampton won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League One
28.11.23	Blackpool - Northampton Town	1:2 ✺
25.11.23	Northampton Town - Cambridge United	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
21.11.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Northampton Town	3:2 ✺
English League One
11.11.23	Northampton Town - Burton Albion	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
04.11.23	Northampton Town - Barrow	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWLWL
- Portsmouth FC
English League One
28.11.23	Burton Albion - Portsmouth	0:2 ✺
25.11.23	Portsmouth - Blackpool	0:4 ✺
11.11.23	Portsmouth - Charlton Athletic	2:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.11.23	Leyton Orient - Portsmouth	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.23	Chesterfield - Portsmouth	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
06.03.21	Northampton Town - Portsmouth	4:1
27.10.20	Portsmouth - Northampton Town	4:0
English EFL Trophy
03.12.19	Portsmouth - Northampton Town	2:1
English League One
30.12.17	Portsmouth - Northampton Town	3:1
English EFL Trophy
02.12.17	Portsmouth - Northampton Town	2:0
English League One
12.09.17	Northampton Town - Portsmouth	3:1
English League Two
07.05.16	Portsmouth - Northampton Town	1:2

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