Match Info

Serie B - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo (Catanzaro)

Referee: Feliciani E. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean
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	Catanzaro		Palermo

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.25	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.6
	2.3	3.05	3.1	Watch
	2.39	3.14	3.42
	2.32	3.05	3.28	Watch
	2.3	3	3.1
	2.37	3.2	3.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.97)	3.11 ↓ (3.56)	3.15 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Catanzaro
39.9%

Draw
30.3%

Palermo
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

26.2%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

25.5%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Catanzaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Catanzaro's performance.

Palermo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palermo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Catanzaro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palermo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	14.3%	42.9%

Catanzaro - Palermo Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Catanzaro will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Palermo will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Catanzaro (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Catanzaro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 4. Matias Antonini 23. Brighenti N. 27. Favasuli C. 20. Pontisso S. 10. Petriccione J. 30. Alesi G. 14. Liberali M. 9. Iemmello P. (C) 8. Pittarello F.	66. Joronen J. (G) 29. Peda P. 96. Magnani G. 32. Ceccaroni P. 27. Pierozzi N. 8. Segre J. (C) 10. Ranocchia F. 3. Augello T. 21. Le Douaron J. 5. Palumbo A. 20. Pohjanpalo J.
Substitutes
5. Bashi E. 98. Buglio D. 77. D'Alessandro M. 94. Di Francesco F. 6. Fellipe Jack 62. Frosinini R. 1. Marietta C. (G) 19. Nuamah P. 28. Oudin R. 21. Pompetti M. 32. Rispoli F. 26. Verrengia B.	13. Bani M. 28. Blin A. 31. Corona G. 77. Di Bartolo F. (G) 17. Giovane S. 6. Gomes C. 1. Gomis A. (G) 11. Gyasi E. 7. Johnsen D. 18. Modesto R. 14. Vasic A. 72. Veroli D.
Coaches
Aquilani A.	Inzaghi F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Iemmello P. ⚽, Cassandro T. (A),
15', 2 - 0, Iemmello P. ⚽, Brighenti N. (A),
32', Ranocchia F. 🟨,
41', 3 - 0, Liberali M. ⚽, Iemmello P. (A),
45+4', Pierozzi N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pierozzi N. ↓, Gyasi E. ↑,
52', Le Douaron J. ↓, Johnsen D. ↑,
59', Augello T. 🟨,
60', Ranocchia F. ↓, Blin A. ↑,
61', Augello T. ↓, Modesto R. ↑,
76', Pontisso S. ↓, Pompetti M. ↑,
76', Liberali M. ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
85', Iemmello P. ↓, Di Francesco F. ↑,
85', Alesi G. ↓, Rispoli F. ↑,
88', Segre J. ↓, Giovane S. ↑,
90+2', Frosinini R. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Palermo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Palermo: Vasic A. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Catanzaro won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palermo	6	5	1	0	14:7	7	16
18	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	5:9	-4	3

Last Results with these Odds

Catanzaro - the odds 2.97 are the expected chance of winning is 31.41%, but this team recently wins 12% of matches with these odds.

Palermo - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.43%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
12.05.26	Catanzaro - Avellino	3:0 ✺
08.05.26	Catanzaro - Bari	2:3 ✺
01.05.26	Palermo - Catanzaro	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Catanzaro - Spezia	4:2 ✺
18.04.26	Juve Stabia - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLWT
- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
08.05.26	Venezia - Palermo	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	Palermo - Catanzaro	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Reggiana - Palermo	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Palermo - Cesena	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Frosinone - Palermo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
01.05.26	Palermo - Catanzaro	3:2
25.10.25	Catanzaro - Palermo	1:0
27.04.25	Catanzaro - Palermo	1:3
15.12.24	Palermo - Catanzaro	1:2
26.01.24	Catanzaro - Palermo	1:1
01.12.23	Palermo - Catanzaro	1:2
Italian Serie C Group C
24.01.22	Catanzaro - Palermo	0:0

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