Match Info

Serie B - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Palermo		Catanzaro

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.9	5	Watch
	1.65	3.85	4.55	Watch
	1.69	4.29	4.97
	1.64	4.2	4.6	Watch
	1.67	3.8	4.5
	1.7	4.2	4.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.76)	4.04 ↑ (3.74)	4.74 ↑ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palermo
56.8%

Draw
23.3%

Catanzaro
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

25%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

26.2%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Catanzaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	7.7%	0%

Palermo - Catanzaro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Palermo (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Palermo will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
66. Joronen J. (G) 27. Pierozzi N. 29. Peda P. 32. Ceccaroni P. 7. Johnsen D. 8. Segre J. (C) 10. Ranocchia F. 3. Augello T. 21. Le Douaron J. 5. Palumbo A. 20. Pohjanpalo J.	22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 4. Matias Antonini 23. Brighenti N. 27. Favasuli C. 10. Petriccione J. 20. Pontisso S. 30. Alesi G. 14. Liberali M. 9. Iemmello P. (C) 8. Pittarello F.
Substitutes
13. Bani M. 19. Bereszynski B. 28. Blin A. 31. Corona G. 17. Giovane S. 6. Gomes C. 1. Gomis A. (G) 11. Gyasi E. 96. Magnani G. 18. Modesto R. 14. Vasic A. 72. Veroli D.	5. Bashi E. 98. Buglio D. 77. D'Alessandro M. 94. Di Francesco F. 6. Fellipe Jack 62. Frosinini R. 39. Koffi N. 1. Marietta C. (G) 19. Nuamah P. 28. Oudin R. 21. Pompetti M. 32. Rispoli F.
Coaches
Inzaghi F.	Aquilani A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Pohjanpalo J. ⚽, Pierozzi N. (A),
16', Peda P. ↓, Magnani G. ↑,
20', Johnsen D. 🟨,
45+4', Segre J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Le Douaron J. ↓, Vasic A. ↑,
46', Liberali M. ↓, Di Francesco F. ↑,
49', Pittarello F. 🟨,
50', Segre J. ↓, Modesto R. ↑,
61', Iemmello P. ↓, Pompetti M. ↑,
65', Vasic A. 🟨,
75', Johnsen D. ↓, Gyasi E. ↑,
76', Ceccaroni P. ↓, Corona G. ↑,
78', Alesi G. ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
78', Petriccione J. ↓, Rispoli F. ↑,
87', Favasuli C. ↓, Bashi E. ↑,
89', 2 - 0, Modesto R. ⚽, Ranocchia F. (A),
90+3', Pierozzi N. 🟥,
90+5', Pontisso S. 🟨,
90+5', Di Francesco F. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-3.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Catanzaro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Catanzaro has had a series of home games.

In this match, Palermo is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Palermo: Le Douaron J. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Palermo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.2:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palermo	6	5	1	0	14:7	7	16
18	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	5:9	-4	3

Last Results with these Odds

Palermo - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 53.09%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
17.05.26	Catanzaro - Palermo	3:0 ✺
08.05.26	Venezia - Palermo	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	Palermo - Catanzaro	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Reggiana - Palermo	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Palermo - Cesena	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWTW
- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
17.05.26	Catanzaro - Palermo	3:0 ✺
12.05.26	Catanzaro - Avellino	3:0 ✺
08.05.26	Catanzaro - Bari	2:3 ✺
01.05.26	Palermo - Catanzaro	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Catanzaro - Spezia	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
17.05.26	Catanzaro - Palermo	3:0
01.05.26	Palermo - Catanzaro	3:2
25.10.25	Catanzaro - Palermo	1:0
27.04.25	Catanzaro - Palermo	1:3
15.12.24	Palermo - Catanzaro	1:2
26.01.24	Catanzaro - Palermo	1:1
01.12.23	Palermo - Catanzaro	1:2

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