Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 March 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Beaton J. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 7, Supersport Action, SuperSport Variety 1
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 6
Argentina	17:00	Disney+
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 7
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 4
Canada	16:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	17:00	Disney+
China	04:00	iQIYI
Colombia	15:00	Disney+
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	ANT1, Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 10
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	ANT 1+, ANT 1 Greece, COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Uno
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	14:00	Amazon Prime Video, Claro Sports, FOX Sports 2
Montenegro	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport Variety 1
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Premium 6
Romania	22:00	Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 4
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport Action, SuperSport Variety 1
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 9
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Turkey	23:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 9
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 10
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	16:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus
International	20:00	Disney+, VIX App


	Fiorentina		Panathinaikos

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.1	7
	1.47	3.9	6.25
	1.45	4.3	7
	1.52	4.29	6.72
	1.45	4.53	7.04	Watch
	1.44	4.39	8.1
	1.5	4.2	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.8)	4.24 ↑ (3.6)	6.94 ↑ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
64.1%

Draw
22.3%

Panathinaikos
13.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.6%

26.8%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

29.7%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fiorentina's performance.

Panathinaikos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Panathinaikos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Panathinaikos than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	5.3%	15.8%

Fiorentina - Panathinaikos Predictions

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (29 of 37 users predict this - 78.38%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.12% – 91.64%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 8. Mandragora R. 32. Cataldi D. 44. Fagioli N. 21. Gosens R. 20. Kean M. 10. Gudmundsson A.	69. Dragowski B. (G) 2. Vagiannidis G. (C) 55. Arao W. 15. Ingason S. I. 25. Mladenovic F. 8. Ounahi A. 24. Siopis M. 20. Maksimovic N. 31. Djuricic F. 10. Tete 19. Swiderski K.
Substitutes
29. Adli Y. 61. Baroncelli L. 9. Beltran L. 63. Caprini M. 90. Folorunsho M. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 22. Moreno M. 65. Parisi F. 24. Richardson A. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 17. Zaniolo N.	30. Bregou A. 26. Fikaj E. 16. Gnezda Cerin A. 7. Ioannidis F. 21. Jedvaj T. 29. Jeremejeff A. 81. Lilo K. (G) 1. Lodygin Y. (G) 17. Mancini D. 3. Max P. 80. Ntampizas A. 28. Pellistri F.
Coaches
Palladino R.	Vitoria R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Mandragora R. ⚽,
24', 2 - 0, Gudmundsson A. ⚽,
28', Mladenovic F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Djuricic F. ↓, Ioannidis F. ↑,
60', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Beltran L. ↑,
60', Cataldi D. ↓, Folorunsho M. ↑,
70', Comuzzo P. 🟨,
74', Pongracic M. 🟨,
74', Swiderski K. 🟨,
75', Swiderski K. ↓, Jeremejeff A. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Kean M. ⚽, Gosens R. (A),
78', Kean M. 🟨,
79', Mandragora R. ↓, Adli Y. ↑,
79', Ranieri L. ↓, Zaniolo N. ↑,
81', 3 - 1, Ioannidis F. (Pen),
82', Vitoria R. 🟨,
82', Palladino R. 🟨,
83', Vagiannidis G. 🟨,
87', Tete ↓, Pellistri F. ↑,
87', Arao W. ↓, Gnezda Cerin A. ↑,
90+2', Zaniolo N. 🟨,
90+3', Mladenovic F. 🟨,
90+4', Dodo ↓, Moreno M. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-3.

Fiorentina is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Panathinaikos is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Fiorentina is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Bove E. (Heart Problems) Colpani A. (Foot Injury) Folorunsho M. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Panathinaikos: Bakasetas A. (Muscle Injury) Karakasidis G. (Inactive) Limnios D. (Inactive) Magnusson H. (Inactive) Nikas G. (Inactive) Palmer-Brown E. (Muscle Injury) Perez R. (Inactive) Schenkeveld B. (Inactive) Zeca (Inactive)

There are questionable in Panathinaikos: Kotsiras G. (Ankle Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Fiorentina won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
09.03.25	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.03.25	Panathinaikos - Fiorentina	3:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.02.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Verona - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Fiorentina - Como	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLL
- Panathinaikos FC
Greek Super League
09.03.25	Atromitos Athens - Panathinaikos	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.03.25	Panathinaikos - Fiorentina	3:2 ✺
Greek Super League
01.03.25	Panathinaikos - Panetolikos	2:0 ✺
23.02.25	Lamia - Panathinaikos	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.02.25	Panathinaikos - Vikingur Reykjavik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
06.03.25	Panathinaikos - Fiorentina	3:2

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