Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 12

Date: 7 October 2023, Saturday

Location: Whaddon Road (Cheltenham)

Referee: Wright P. (Eng)


	Cheltenham Town		Derby County

	1	X	2
	6.5	4	1.53
	5.75	4.1	1.52
	6	4.2	1.53	Watch
	6.71	4.19	1.54
	6	4.2	1.5
	6.2	4.2	1.51	Watch
	6	4.1	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.17 ↑ (3.76)	4.14 ↑ (3.56)	1.52 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cheltenham Town
15.3%

Draw
22.7%

Derby County
62%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

26.2%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

25.7%

49.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cheltenham Town's form might have worsened.

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Derby County's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cheltenham Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Derby County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	0%	81.2%

Cheltenham Town - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Southwood L. (G) 2. Long S. (C) 5. Bevan O. 6. Freestone L. 22. Smith L. 17. Olayinka J. 23. Bonds E. 8. Sercombe L. 15. Ferry W. 11. Street R. 9. Goodwin W.	1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 3. Forsyth C. (C) 12. Smith K. 22. Fornah T. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 10. Waghorn M. 7. Barkhuizen T. 9. Collins J.
Substitutes
4. Bradbury T. 38. Butler-Oyedeji N. 20. Harris M. (G) 10. Keena A. 32. Malcolm J. 14. Thompson C. 26. Williams J.	8. Bird M. 5. Bradley S. 4. Hourihane C. 17. Sibley L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Washington C. 2. Wilson K.
Coaches
Russell K.	Warne P.

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 7).

Cheltenham has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Derby is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Derby is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Derby to win the game is with odds 1.51.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Cheltenham won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Cheltenham won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cheltenham Town
English League One
03.10.23	Cheltenham Town - Fleetwood Town	0:2 ✺
30.09.23	Lincoln City - Cheltenham Town	2:0 ✺
23.09.23	Cheltenham Town - Stevenage Borough	0:3 ✺
19.09.23	Peterborough United - Cheltenham Town	3:0 ✺
16.09.23	Exeter City - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Derby County
English League One
03.10.23	Blackpool - Derby County	1:3 ✺
30.09.23	Derby County - Cambridge United	0:0 ✺
23.09.23	Carlisle United - Derby County	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
19.09.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
English League One
16.09.23	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
28.02.23	Derby County - Cheltenham Town	2:0
14.01.23	Cheltenham Town - Derby County	2:3

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