Match Info

Date: 9 January 2021, Saturday


	Chorley		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2	4	3.3	Watch
	2	3.9	3.1
	1.96	4	3.4	Watch
	1.85	3.55	3.25
	1.93	4.09	3.37
	1.91	3.9	3.6	Watch
	10.25	6.3	1.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (4.59)	4.25 ↓ (4.43)	3.04 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chorley
36.2%

Draw
26.6%

Derby County
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

25%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

21.7%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chorley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chorley's performance.

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chorley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+21.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.2%	3.7%	7.1%

Chorley - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 295 users predict this event. Chorley will win (votes: 263 - 89.2%). Derby will win (votes: 21 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 3.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chorley: 85.7% – 92.7%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Derby could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Chorley have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chorley
English National League North
02.01.21	Fylde - Chorley	4:0 ✺
28.12.20	Chester - Chorley	1:2 ✺
26.12.20	Chorley - Fylde	3:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.12.20	Guiseley - Chorley	2:0 ✺
English National League North
12.12.20	Alfreton Town - Chorley	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWWLT
- Derby County
English League Championship
01.01.21	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	1:0 ✺
29.12.20	Birmingham City - Derby County	0:4 ✺
26.12.20	Derby County - Preston North End	0:1 ✺
16.12.20	Derby County - Swansea City	2:0 ✺
12.12.20	Derby County - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWLWT

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