Match Info

Championship - Round 3

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Webb D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Derby County		Swansea City

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.2	3	Watch
	2.30	3.40	3.10
	2.41	3.29	2.95	Watch
	2.45	3.36	3.09
	2.33	3.41	3.03	Watch
	2.4	3.3	3.05
	2.38	3.3	3.26	Watch
	2.38	3.25	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.32)	3.31 ↓ (3.39)	3.07 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
40.1%

Draw
28.8%

Swansea City
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

27.9%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

29.2%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Swansea City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swansea City than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

Derby County - Swansea City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Swansea will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Swansea (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Swansea (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Swansea (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Swansea (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 22. Johnston M. 6. Langas S. 28. Sanderson D. 18. Taylor C. 20. Mowatt A. 27. Travis L. (C) 26. Hedges R. 8. Clark B. 33. Blackett-Taylor C. 15. Salvesen L.	22. Vigouroux L. (G) 2. Key J. 26. Lissah F. 23. Welsh S. 14. Tymon J. 7. Widell M. 4. Fulton J. (C) 6. Stamenic M. 30. Opoku J. 33. Idah A. 10. Eom Ji-Sung
Substitutes
13. Bilbija F. 10. Brewster R. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 29. Fraulo O. 24. Nyambe R. 11. Szmodics S. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J.	46. Eustaquio S. 1. Fisher A. (G) 8. Just E. 20. Parente T. 35. Ronald 3. Seelt J. 9. Vipotnik Z. 44. Woodward T. 49. Yeo M. K.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Emanuel Soares Matos V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Opoku J. ⚽, Eom Ji-Sung (A),
24', Opoku J. ↓, Yeo M. K. ↑,
44', 0 - 2, Eom Ji-Sung ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Johnston M. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
46', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Szmodics S. ↑,
46', Hedges R. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
65', Idah A. ↓, Vipotnik Z. ↑,
65', Widell M. ↓, Just E. ↑,
65', Fulton J. ↓, Eustaquio S. ↑,
69', Langas S. 🟨,
69', Salvesen L. ↓, Bilbija F. ↑,
73', Stamenic M. 🟨,
78', Mowatt A. ↓, Eames O. ↑,
79', Sanderson D. 🟨,
81', Travis L. 🟨,
84', Just E. 🟨,
85', Eom Ji-Sung ↓, Ronald ↑,
90+1', 0 - 3, Ronald ⚽, Eustaquio S. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 2.

Derby is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Swansea is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Swansea has had a series of home games.

Derby is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Murkin D. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Swansea: Burgess C. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Franco G. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Clarke M. (Calf Injury) Szmodics S. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Derby won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.2:0.5).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Swansea: 7.34% Derby: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	15:7	8	20
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Derby County - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.73%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Swansea City - the odds 3.01 are the expected chance of winning is 31.39%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
22.08.26	Derby County - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Derby County - Lincoln City	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
04.08.26	Rotherham United - Derby County	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Burton Albion - Derby County	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 TLLTL
- Swansea City
English League Championship
22.08.26	Swansea City - Sheffield United	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Stoke City - Swansea City	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Swansea City - Birmingham City	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Swansea City - Leganés	1:0 ✺
24.07.26	Swansea City - Udinese	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
14.02.26	Derby County - Swansea City	2:0
25.11.25	Swansea City - Derby County	1:2
05.04.25	Swansea City - Derby County	1:0
27.11.24	Derby County - Swansea City	1:2
09.04.22	Swansea City - Derby County	2:1
02.10.21	Derby County - Swansea City	0:0
01.05.21	Swansea City - Derby County	2:1

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