Match Info

K League 1 - Round 12

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Daejeon World Cup Stadium (Daejeon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
South-korea	Coupang Play, JTBC Golf&Sports
World	K League TV


	Daejeon Citizen		Incheon United

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.25
	2.08	3.2	3.3
	2.19	3.46	3.62
	2.11	3.31	3.49	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.3
	2.11	3.28	3.46	Watch
	2.02	3.05	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.02)	3.25 ↑ (3.05)	3.37 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daejeon Citizen
44%

Draw
28.5%

Incheon United
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

28.8%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

29.7%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daejeon Citizen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daejeon Citizen than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Daejeon Citizen - Incheon United Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Daejeon Citizen will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Incheon will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Daejeon Citizen: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Daejeon Citizen (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lee Chang-Geun (G) 20. Lee H. 4. Cho Sung-Gwon 98. Krivotsyuk A. (C) 2. Park K. 6. Kang Yun-Sung 30. Kim Bong-Soo 14. Kim Jun-Beom 27. Jeong Jae-Hee 9. Diogo Oliveira 77. Joao Victor	21. Lee Tae-Hui (G) 39. Kim Myung-soon 20. Park Kyung-sub 2. Ibiza 3. Lee Sang-Gi 11. Gerso 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 15. Seo Jae-Min 23. Jeong Chi-In 77. Park Seung-Ho 9. Mugosa S.
Substitutes
10. Joo Min-Kyu 70. Kim Hyeon-Ug 3. Kim Min-Duk 33. Kim Moon-Hwan 25. Lee Jun-Seo (G) 16. Lee Myung-Jae 17. Ludwigson G. 19. Seo Jin-Su 99. Yu Kang-Hyun	13. Choi Seung-gu 99. Ferrier M. 88. Jung Won-Jin 34. Kang Y. 1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 4. Kim Gun-Hee 72. Lee Chung-Yong 10. Lee Dong-Ryul 19. Park Ho-Min
Coaches
Hwang Sun-Hong	Yoon Jong-Hwan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jeong Chi-In ↓, Lee Chung-Yong ↑,
46', Jeong Jae-Hee ↓, Ludwigson G. ↑,
58', Joao Victor ↓, Seo Jin-Su ↑,
58', Lee H. ↓, Kim Moon-Hwan ↑,
58', Park Seung-Ho ↓, Lee Dong-Ryul ↑,
59', Mugosa S. ↓, Ferrier M. ↑,
65', Lee Sang-Gi ↓, Choi Seung-gu ↑,
71', Kim Jun-Beom ↓, Joo Min-Kyu ↑,
80', Lee Tae-Hui ↓, Kim Dong-Heon ↑,
85', Park K. ↓, Lee Myung-Jae ↑,
90+1', Lee Dong-Ryul 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: ) and 8 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Daejeon Citizen won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Daejeon Citizen is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Daejeon Citizen won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 18:31. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Daejeon Citizen won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 0.6:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Daejeon	31	11	10	10	48:38	10	43
7	Incheon	31	11	9	11	39:33	6	42

Last Results with these Odds

Incheon United - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 27.84%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daejeon Citizen
South Korean K-League 1
02.05.26	Gwangju - Daejeon Citizen	0:5 ✺
26.04.26	Ulsan HD - Daejeon Citizen	1:4 ✺
22.04.26	Daejeon Citizen - Jeju	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	FC Seoul - Daejeon Citizen	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Daejeon Citizen - Gangwon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WWLWL
- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 1
02.05.26	Incheon United - Gangwon	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Incheon United - Jeju	1:0 ✺
21.04.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Incheon United	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Bucheon - Incheon United	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Incheon United - Ulsan HD	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
18.03.26	Incheon United - Daejeon Citizen	1:3
10.11.24	Incheon United - Daejeon Citizen	1:2
17.08.24	Daejeon Citizen - Incheon United	2:1
18.05.24	Daejeon Citizen - Incheon United	0:1
30.03.24	Incheon United - Daejeon Citizen	2:0
16.07.23	Incheon United - Daejeon Citizen	2:0
04.06.23	Daejeon Citizen - Incheon United	1:3

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