Match Info

K League 1 - Round 11

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Sungui Arena Park (Incheon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
South-korea	Coupang Play, ENA Sports
World	K League TV


	Incheon United		Gangwon

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.45	Watch
	2.87	3	2.5	Watch
	3.05	2.98	2.35
	3.3	3.07	2.51
	2.93	3.1	2.5	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.38	Watch
	3.06	3.16	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (3.01)	3.04 ↑ (2.9)	2.45 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Incheon United
30.8%

Draw
30.8%

Gangwon
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

32.2%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

32.2%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Gangwon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gangwon than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Incheon United - Gangwon Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Incheon will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Gangwon will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Lee Tae-Hui (G) 39. Kim Myung-soon 20. Park Kyung-sub 2. Ibiza 32. Lee Ju-Yong 10. Lee Dong-Ryul 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 15. Seo Jae-Min 72. Lee Chung-Yong 99. Ferrier M. 9. Mugosa S.	1. Park Cheong-Hyo (G) 99. Kang Joon-Hyuck 47. Shin Min-Ha 13. Lee Gi-Hyuk 27. Kim Do-Hyun 10. Mo Jae-Hyeon 97. Lee You-Hyeon (C) 4. Seo Min-Woo 7. Kim Dae-Won 96. Choe Byeong-Chan 11. Goh Young-Jun
Substitutes
13. Choi Seung-gu 11. Gerso 23. Jeong Chi-In 1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 4. Kim Gun-Hee 3. Lee Sang-Gi 19. Park Ho-Min 77. Park Seung-Ho 8. Undabarrena I.	51. Cho Min-Kyu (G) 77. Hleihel A. 3. Jeong Seung-Bin 14. Kang Y. 6. Kim Dong-Hyun 9. Kim Gun-Hee 25. Lee H. 24. Park H. 19. Park Sang-Hyeok
Coaches
Yoon Jong-Hwan	Chung Kyung-Ho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Kim Dae-Won 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Kim Dae-Won ⚽, Kang Joon-Hyuck (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lee Dong-Ryul ↓, Gerso ↑,
66', Choe Byeong-Chan ↓, Hleihel A. ↑,
66', Goh Young-Jun ↓, Kim Gun-Hee ↑,
67', Mugosa S. ↓, Jeong Chi-In ↑,
81', Lee You-Hyeon ↓, Kim Dong-Hyun ↑,
83', Lee Myoung-Joo 🟨,
85', Lee Ju-Yong ↓, Lee Sang-Gi ↑,
90+1', Kang Joon-Hyuck 🟨,
90+5', Mo Jae-Hyeon ↓, Kang Y. ↑,
90+5', Park Kyung-sub ↓, Choi Seung-gu ↑,
90+5', Kim Myung-soon ↓, Park Ho-Min ↑,
90+8', Kang Joon-Hyuck ↓, Lee H. ↑,
90+8', Kim Dae-Won ↓, Park Sang-Hyeok ↑,
90+9', Gerso 🟨,
90+9', 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Incheon won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Incheon won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:27. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Incheon won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Gangwon	31	11	13	7	38:28	10	46
7	Incheon	31	11	9	11	39:33	6	42

Last Results with these Odds

Incheon United - the odds 3.01 are the expected chance of winning is 30.94%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Gangwon - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.9%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 1
25.04.26	Incheon United - Jeju	1:0 ✺
21.04.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Incheon United	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Bucheon - Incheon United	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Incheon United - Ulsan HD	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWTLW
- Gangwon FC
South Korean K-League 1
25.04.26	Gangwon - FC Seoul	1:2 ✺
21.04.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gangwon	0:3 ✺
18.04.26	Gangwon - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Daejeon Citizen - Gangwon	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Gangwon - Gwangju	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
06.10.24	Incheon United - Gangwon	1:3
30.06.24	Incheon United - Gangwon	0:1
21.04.24	Gangwon - Incheon United	4:1
24.09.23	Gangwon - Incheon United	1:1
02.07.23	Incheon United - Gangwon	1:0
16.04.23	Gangwon - Incheon United	0:2
08.10.22	Gangwon - Incheon United	0:0

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