Match Info

LaLiga - Round 38

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
Argentina	16:00	Disney+
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2
Australia	05:00	beIN Connect
Austria	21:00	DAZN 2, DAZN
Bangladesh	01:00	Begin
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	16:00	Disney+
Canada	15:00	TSN+
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Denmark	21:00	TV2 Play
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	21:00	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	Nova Sports 4
Hong Kong	03:00	M Plus Live, Now Player
India	00:30	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, SCTV
Italy	21:00	DAZN Italia
Japan	04:00	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	13:00	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New Zealand	07:00	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	20:00	DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	22:00	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 4
Spain	21:00	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 5, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	21:00	TV4 Play
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect
Turkey	22:00	S Sport, S Sport+
United Kingdom	20:00	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+
Vietnam	02:00	SCTV Online


	Deportivo Alavés		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.8
	2.42	3.35	2.92
	2.54	3.41	2.95
	2.47	3.35	2.87	Watch
	2.38	3.2	2.9
	2.48	3.44	3.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.22)	3.36 ↓ (3.43)	2.91 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Alavés
38.8%

Draw
28.4%

Rayo Vallecano
32.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.8%

27.7%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28.2%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.7%	21.7%

Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Alavés will win (votes: 40 - 67.8%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 13 - 22%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 10.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alavés: 55.9% – 79.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Alavés (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Rayo Vallecano (2.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Alavés (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sivera A. (G) 7. Perez A. 14. Tenaglia N. 16. Koski V. 24. Parada V. 19. Ibanez P. 8. Blanco A. (C) 18. Guridi J. 21. Rebbach A. 15. Boye L. 11. Martinez T.	1. Cardenas D. (G) 20. Balliu I. 16. Mumin A. 32. Mendy N. 22. Pacha 23. Valentin O. (C) 15. Gumbau G. 14. Martin C. 4. Diaz P. 18. Garcia A. 11. Nteka R.
Substitutes
10. Alena C. 20. Calebe 22. Diabate I. 9. Diaz M. 13. Fernandez R. (G) 6. Guevara A. 17. Jonny Otto 34. Manas A. 23. Protesoni C. 4. Suarez D. 31. Swiderski G. (G) 3. Yusi	9. Alemao 13. Batalla A. (G) 10. Camello S. 3. Chavarria P. 6. Ciss P. 19. de Frutos J. 30. Gil J. (G) 24. Lejeune F. 21. Perez F. 2. Ratiu A. 8. Trejo O. 33. Vertrouwd J.
Coaches
Sanchez Flores Q.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Martinez T. ⚽,
33', Parada V. ↓, Protesoni C. ↑,
38', Martin C. ↓, Camello S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Garcia A. ↓, de Frutos J. ↑,
54', Camello S. 🟨,
61', Mumin A. ↓, Ciss P. ↑,
61', Valentin O. ↓, Alemao ↑,
64', Ciss P. 🟨,
69', Perez A. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Camello S. ⚽, Ciss P. (A),
74', Ibanez P. ↓, Suarez D. ↑,
79', Rebbach A. 🟨,
84', Boye L. ↓, Diabate I. ↑,
84', Guridi J. ↓, Guevara A. ↑,
87', Tenaglia N. 🟨,
88', Balliu I. ↓, Ratiu A. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Nteka R. ⚽, Camello S. (A),
90+4', Pacha 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 2.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Alavés: Garces F. (Suspended) Pacheco J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Akhomach I. (Muscle Injury) Lopez U. (Yellow Cards) Luiz Felipe (Hamstring Injury) Palazon I. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Garcia A. (Injury) Mendez D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alavés won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.8:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Alaves	10	3	3	4	14:11	3	12
17	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	12:20	-8	9

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Alaves: 0.2% Rayo Vallecano: 0.17%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
17.05.26	Real Oviedo - Deportivo Alavés	0:1 ✺
13.05.26	Deportivo Alavés - Barcelona	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Elche - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao	2:4 ✺
25.04.26	Deportivo Alavés - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWTLW
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
17.05.26	Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
14.05.26	Valencia - Rayo Vallecano	1:1 ✺
11.05.26	Rayo Vallecano - Girona	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.05.26	Strasbourg - Rayo Vallecano	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.05.26	Getafe - Rayo Vallecano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
14.01.26	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	2:0
Spanish LaLiga
26.10.25	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	1:0
29.03.25	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	0:2
26.10.24	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	1:0
10.03.24	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	1:0
15.09.23	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	2:0
16.04.22	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	1:0

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