Match Info

LaLiga - Round 38

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Deportivo Alavés		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.8
	2.42	3.35	2.92
	2.54	3.41	2.95
	2.47	3.35	2.87	Watch
	2.38	3.2	2.9
	2.48	3.44	3.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.22)	3.36 ↓ (3.43)	2.91 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Alavés
38.8%

Draw
28.4%

Rayo Vallecano
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

27.7%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

28.8%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Alavés, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.7%	21.7%

Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Alavés will win (votes: 40 - 67.8%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 13 - 22%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 10.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alavés: 55.9% – 79.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Alavés (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Rayo Vallecano (2.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Alavés (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sivera A. (G) 7. Perez A. 14. Tenaglia N. 16. Koski V. 24. Parada V. 19. Ibanez P. 8. Blanco A. (C) 18. Guridi J. 21. Rebbach A. 15. Boye L. 11. Martinez T.	1. Cardenas D. (G) 20. Balliu I. 16. Mumin A. 32. Mendy N. 22. Pacha 23. Valentin O. (C) 15. Gumbau G. 14. Martin C. 4. Diaz P. 18. Garcia A. 11. Nteka R.
Substitutes
10. Alena C. 20. Calebe 22. Diabate I. 9. Diaz M. 13. Fernandez R. (G) 6. Guevara A. 17. Jonny Otto 34. Manas A. 23. Protesoni C. 4. Suarez D. 31. Swiderski G. (G) 3. Yusi	9. Alemao 13. Batalla A. (G) 10. Camello S. 3. Chavarria P. 6. Ciss P. 19. de Frutos J. 30. Gil J. (G) 24. Lejeune F. 21. Perez F. 2. Ratiu A. 8. Trejo O. 33. Vertrouwd J.
Coaches
Sanchez Flores Q.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Martinez T. ⚽,
33', Parada V. ↓, Protesoni C. ↑,
38', Martin C. ↓, Camello S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Garcia A. ↓, de Frutos J. ↑,
54', Camello S. 🟨,
61', Mumin A. ↓, Ciss P. ↑,
61', Valentin O. ↓, Alemao ↑,
64', Ciss P. 🟨,
69', Perez A. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Camello S. ⚽, Ciss P. (A),
74', Ibanez P. ↓, Suarez D. ↑,
79', Rebbach A. 🟨,
84', Boye L. ↓, Diabate I. ↑,
84', Guridi J. ↓, Guevara A. ↑,
87', Tenaglia N. 🟨,
88', Balliu I. ↓, Ratiu A. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Nteka R. ⚽, Camello S. (A),
90+4', Pacha 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 2.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Alavés: Garces F. (Suspended) Pacheco J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Akhomach I. (Muscle Injury) Lopez U. (Yellow Cards) Luiz Felipe (Hamstring Injury) Palazon I. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Garcia A. (Injury) Mendez D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alavés won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.8:0.6).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Alaves: 0.37% Rayo Vallecano: 0.28%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Alaves	8	3	2	3	12:8	4	11
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11:16	-5	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
17.05.26	Real Oviedo - Deportivo Alavés	0:1 ✺
13.05.26	Deportivo Alavés - Barcelona	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Elche - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao	2:4 ✺
25.04.26	Deportivo Alavés - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWTLW
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
17.05.26	Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
14.05.26	Valencia - Rayo Vallecano	1:1 ✺
11.05.26	Rayo Vallecano - Girona	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.05.26	Strasbourg - Rayo Vallecano	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.05.26	Getafe - Rayo Vallecano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
14.01.26	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	2:0
Spanish LaLiga
26.10.25	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	1:0
29.03.25	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	0:2
26.10.24	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	1:0
10.03.24	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	1:0
15.09.23	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	2:0
16.04.22	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	1:0

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