Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar (Cuenca)

Referee: Cabero J. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Deportivo Cuenca		San Lorenzo

	1	X	2
	2.8	3	2.75	Watch
	2.5	3	2.9
	2.88	2.58	2.92	Watch
	2.96	2.91	2.99
	2.79	2.98	2.79	Watch
	2.88	2.75	2.63	Watch
	2.94	2.98	2.66	Watch
	2.62	3.2	2.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.6)	2.93 ↓ (3.2)	2.8 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Cuenca
33.8%

Draw
32.3%

San Lorenzo
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

29.3%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

28.6%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Cuenca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Cuenca than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	88.9%	11.1%

Deportivo Cuenca - San Lorenzo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. San Lorenzo will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferrero F. (G) 25. Lopez A. (C) 28. Boolsen P. 6. Postel S. 53. Erique Villigua Y. H. 20. Garcia B. 30. Maccari M. 8. Vega E. 19. Diaz M. 11. Rivero G. 43. Ordonez J.	12. Gill O. (G) 32. Herrera E. 4. Romana J. 55. Montenegro L. 24. Tripichio N. (C) 13. Rattalino J. 8. Insaurralde M. 3. Rodriguez Pagano T. 9. Cuello A. 28. Barrios N. 29. Auzmendi R.
Substitutes
37. Arboleda C. 14. Chacon J. 49. Gonzalez D. 23. Guevara E. 29. Klimowicz M. 9. Leguizamon N. 16. Mejia J. 12. Minda E. (G) 21. Morocho S. 2. Mosquera I. 50. Siguenza M.	26. Abrego G. 35. Cordoba A. 16. Corujo G. 6. De Ritis M. 25. Devecchi J. (G) 10. Gulli F. 18. Herazo D. 14. Ladstatter A. 34. Lopez F. 5. Perruzzi I. 11. Reali M. 17. Rodriguez G.
Coaches
Celico J.	Alvarez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Boolsen P. 🟨,
40', Rattalino J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rattalino J. ↓, Gulli F. ↑,
46', Barrios N. ↓, Reali M. ↑,
61', Diaz M. 🟨,
62', Diaz M. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
64', Rodriguez Pagano T. ↓, Ladstatter A. ↑,
65', Ordonez J. 🟨,
69', Lopez A. ↓, Mosquera I. ↑,
75', Rivero G. 🟨,
80', Rivero G. ↓, Klimowicz M. ↑,
80', Garcia B. ↓, Mejia J. ↑,
80', Cuello A. ↓, De Ritis M. ↑,
89', Ladstatter A. ↓, Herazo D. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

San Lorenzo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, San Lorenzo has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportivo Cuenca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

San Lorenzo - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.7%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Cuenca
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.05.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Técnico Universitario	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Deportivo Cuenca	0:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	4:1 ✺
22.04.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Orense	1:3 ✺
19.04.26	Manta - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLLW
- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	San Lorenzo - Independiente	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	San Lorenzo - Santos	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.26	Platense - San Lorenzo	0:1 ✺
20.04.26	San Lorenzo - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	San Lorenzo - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	San Lorenzo - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0

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