Match Info

URUGUAY: Primera Division - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 5 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)


	Deportivo Maldonado		Cerro

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.2	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.1
	2.25	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.2	3.33	3.38
	2.41	3.04	3.4
	2.15	3.2	3.1
	2.21	3.21	3.27	Watch
	2.26	3.05	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.12)	3.14 ↓ (3.33)	3.23 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
41.5%

Draw
29.6%

Cerro
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.4%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

28.7%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Deportivo Maldonado - Cerro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Reyes G. (G) 3. Menosse H. 4. Fuica N. 9. Ruben M. 10. Cantera M. 15. Gonzalez S. 16. Cesar R. 19. Tealde F. (C) 28. Cartagena S. 47. Ramirez S. 74. Romero D.	1. Denis E. (G) 4. Alvarez E. 5. Macelli A. 13. Lacoste P. (C) 6. Marin R. 7. Peralta M. 20. Rabunal M. 21. Gorgoroso Y. 10. Ramirez S. 24. Berrios J. 11. Rodriguez L.
Substitutes
7. Aberasteguy L. 20. Alfaro A. 1. Bermudez E. (G) 21. de Leon E. 23. Diana S. 29. Gonzalez A. 8. Gonzalez P. 26. Larrazabal G. 37. Noble Sequeira A. M. 27. Rodriguez A.	12. Cubero M. (G) 17. Femia E. 3. Gonzalez M. 2. Llana B. 9. Melo E. 8. Petillo N. 14. Rodriguez M. 99. Scorza B. 16. Umpierrez N. 19. Villar E.
Coaches
Boghossian J.	Pallas I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Ramirez S. ⚽,
39', 2 - 0, Ruben M. ⚽,
45', Fuica N. 🟨,
45+2', Berrios J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ramirez S. ↓, Scorza B. ↑,
46', Alvarez E. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
46', Rabunal M. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
46', Rodriguez L. ↓, Villar E. ↑,
47', Cesar R. 🟨,
59', Cesar R. ↓, Noble Sequeira A. M. ↑,
70', Gonzalez S. 🟨,
71', Cartagena S. ↓, Larrazabal G. ↑,
74', Marin R. ↓, Melo E. ↑,
80', Ramirez S. ↓, Aberasteguy L. ↑,
80', Ruben M. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 13 and 14).

Maldonado has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Cerro is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Maldonado could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Maldonado will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Maldonado won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Maldonado won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.04.24	Rampla Juniors - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
20.04.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Miramar Misiones	1:2 ✺
13.04.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
07.04.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
31.03.24	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.04.24	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	1:2 ✺
19.04.24	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	Cerro - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:0 ✺
07.04.24	Cerro - Rampla Juniors	3:0 ✺
31.03.24	Miramar Misiones - Cerro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
03.09.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerro	2:1
17.07.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerro	1:2
18.02.23	Cerro - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0
13.03.21	Cerro - Deportivo Maldonado	2:3
13.09.20	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerro	1:0

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