Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 25

Date: 2 January 2023, Monday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Woods M. (Eng)


	Derby County		Accrington Stanley

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	7
	1.47	4.2	6.5
	1.51	4.25	6.5
	1.45	4.2	6.4
	1.5	4.37	7.02
	1.5	4	6.5
	1.48	4.15	8.4	Watch
	1.46	4.3	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.65)	4.23 ↑ (3.87)	6.87 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
63.9%

Draw
22.3%

Accrington Stanley
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

24.2%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

25.7%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Derby County's performance.

Accrington Stanley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Accrington Stanley might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.7%	4.9%	2.4%

Derby County - Accrington Stanley Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (38 of 41 users predict this - 92.68%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.71% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs) and 20).

Derby has the most likely position - 4 (19.56%), has project points - 80, has currently - 38, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (65%), has a chance of promoted (32%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Accrington has the most likely position - 22 (14.66%), has project points - 46, has currently - 22, has a good chance of relegated (53%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 19, importance 38, small match rating 28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Derby is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Accrington is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Derby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Derby is certain favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Derby won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
30.12.22	Derby County - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
27.12.22	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	0:0 ✺
17.12.22	Derby County - Forest Green Rovers	4:0 ✺
10.12.22	Burton Albion - Derby County	1:1 ✺
03.12.22	Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTWTT
- Accrington Stanley
English League One
29.12.22	Morecambe - Accrington Stanley	2:0 ✺
26.12.22	Accrington Stanley - Barnsley	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
13.12.22	Burton Albion - Accrington Stanley	2:4 ✺
English League One
03.12.22	Accrington Stanley - Oxford United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Accrington Stanley - Barnet	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
15.10.22	Accrington Stanley - Derby County	0:3
English FA Cup
26.01.19	Accrington Stanley - Derby County	0:1

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