Match Info

Championship - Round 43

Date: 18 April 2025, Friday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Linington J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Disney+


	Derby County		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.9	3.2	Watch
	2.35	3	3.3
	2.52	2.96	3.15	Watch
	2.54	3.01	3.24
	2.62	2.82	3.18	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.3
	2.49	2.98	3.42	Watch
	2.52	2.96	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.14)	2.94 ↓ (3.35)	3.24 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
38.3%

Draw
32.3%

Luton Town
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

28.2%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.8%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	14.3%	2.4%

Derby County - Luton Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Luton (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Derby (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (34 of 41 users predict this - 82.93%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 94.45%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Derby County will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Luton (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Vickers J. (G) 6. Langas S. 12. Phillips N. 25. Clarke M. 2. Wilson K. 32. Adams E. (C) 28. Armstrong H. 3. Forsyth C. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 10. Yates J. 18. Harness M.	24. Kaminski T. (G) 28. Makosso C. 6. McGuinness M. 3. Bell A. 25. Jones I. 12. Naismith K. 8. Aasgaard T. 18. Clark J. 21. Alli M. 9. Morris C. (C) 22. Dabo L.
Substitutes
7. Barkhuizen T. 17. Goudmijn K. 19. Jackson K. 13. Luthra R. (G) 8. Osborn B. 33. Pieters E. 21. Rooney J. 16. Thompson L. 48. Wheeldon L.	16. Burke R. 14. Chong T. 46. Harris T. 23. Krul T. (G) 15. Mengi T. 13. Nakamba M. 37. Nelson Z. 44. Nordas L. 20. Walsh L.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Bloomfield M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Alli M. ⚽,
15', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
29', Langas S. 🟨,
38', Morris C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
68', Alli M. 🟨,
72', Dabo L. ↓, Mengi T. ↑,
73', Jones I. ↓, Burke R. ↑,
76', Langas S. ↓, Goudmijn K. ↑,
81', Clark J. ↓, Nakamba M. ↑,
81', Morris C. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
90+3', Armstrong H. ↓, Barkhuizen T. ↑,
90+4', Alli M. ↓, Chong T. ↑,
90+5', Jackson K. 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 21 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Derby will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Brown D. (Hamstring Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Nyambe R. (Injury) Osborn B. (Hamstring Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury) Roofe K. (Hamstring Injury) Salvesen L. (Knee Injury) Ward J. (Injury)

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Elder C. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Luton: Doughty A. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:10 (average 1.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
12.04.25	Portsmouth - Derby County	2:2 ✺
08.04.25	Derby County - Burnley	0:0 ✺
05.04.25	Swansea City - Derby County	1:0 ✺
02.04.25	Derby County - Preston North End	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Plymouth Argyle - Derby County	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TTLWW
- Luton Town
English League Championship
12.04.25	Luton Town - Blackburn Rovers	0:1 ✺
08.04.25	Stoke City - Luton Town	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Luton Town - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Hull City - Luton Town	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Luton Town - Middlesbrough	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
20.12.24	Luton Town - Derby County	2:1
26.02.22	Luton Town - Derby County	1:0
19.10.21	Derby County - Luton Town	2:2
02.04.21	Derby County - Luton Town	2:0
19.09.20	Luton Town - Derby County	2:1
28.01.20	Luton Town - Derby County	3:2
05.10.19	Derby County - Luton Town	2:0

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