Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 28

Date: 15 January 2024, Monday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Xtra
United-kingdom	Sky Sports


	Derby County		Burton Albion

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.75	13	Watch
	1.23	6	12
	1.22	6	13	Watch
	1.28	5.84	11.57
	1.25	6.22	12.53
	1.2	5.8	12
	1.23	6.1	12.5	Watch
	1.24	5.8	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.35)	5.94 ↑ (4.7)	12.2 ↑ (8.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
76.3%

Draw
15.9%

Burton Albion
7.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.9%

19.8%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70%

19.5%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Derby County's performance.

Burton Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Derby County that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Derby County - Burton Albion Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (24 of 28 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.75% – 98.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Vickers J. (G) 2. Wilson K. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 20. Elder C. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 8. Bird M. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 7. Barkhuizen T. 9. Collins J. 19. John-Jules T.	1. Crocombe M. (G) 12. Moon J. 2. Brayford J. (C) 6. Sweeney R. 22. Caprice J. 7. Powell J. 4. Oshilaja A. 3. Seddon S. 25. Gilligan C. 15. Lubala B. 11. Bennett M.
Substitutes
5. Bradley S. 39. Brown D. 22. Fornah T. 17. Sibley L. 16. Thompson L. 23. Ward J. 1. Wildsmith J. (G)	30. Blackman J. (G) 21. Carayol M. 8. Harper R. 17. Helm M. 44. Hugill J. 38. Scott D. 40. Tamen W.
Coaches
Warne P.	Paterson M.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 19).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Derby is absolute favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Derby won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 26-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English EFL Trophy
09.01.24	Derby County - Bradford City	0:1 ✺
English League One
06.01.24	Fleetwood Town - Derby County	1:3 ✺
01.01.24	Derby County - Peterborough United	2:3 ✺
29.12.23	Oxford United - Derby County	2:3 ✺
26.12.23	Wigan Athletic - Derby County	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWLWW
- Burton Albion
English EFL Trophy
10.01.24	Blackpool - Burton Albion	2:1 ✺
English League One
06.01.24	Burton Albion - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
01.01.24	Bolton Wanderers - Burton Albion	1:0 ✺
29.12.23	Burton Albion - Shrewsbury Town	1:0 ✺
26.12.23	Burton Albion - Blackpool	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
12.08.23	Burton Albion - Derby County	0:3
22.04.23	Derby County - Burton Albion	1:0
10.12.22	Burton Albion - Derby County	1:1
Club Friendly
20.07.19	Burton Albion - Derby County	2:5
English League Championship
14.04.18	Burton Albion - Derby County	3:1
02.12.17	Derby County - Burton Albion	1:0
21.02.17	Derby County - Burton Albion	0:0

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