Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 20

Date: 28 November 2023, Tuesday


	Port Vale		Derby County

	1	X	2
	4	3.6	1.91
	3.8	3.4	1.93
	3.75	3.5	1.95	Watch
	4.1	3.49	1.98
	4.11	3.5	1.98
	3.6	3.5	1.91
	3.82	3.52	1.94	Watch
	3.65	3.5	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.85 ↑ (3.32)	3.5 ↑ (3.49)	1.95 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Vale
24.5%

Draw
27%

Derby County
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

26.9%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

26.8%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	4.8%	85.7%

Port Vale - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 6. Smith N. (C) 16. Lowe J. 17. Iacovitti A. 19. Massey G. 14. Ojo F. 18. Arblaster O. 4. Sang T. 11. Devine A. 8. Garrity B. 12. Ikpeazu U.	1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 3. Forsyth C. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 2. Wilson K. 22. Fornah T. 8. Bird M. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 9. Collins J.
Substitutes
10. Chislett E. 20. Conlon T. 27. Debrah J. 13. Leutwiler J. (G) 9. Loft R. 21. Plant J. 24. Walters R.	7. Barkhuizen T. 5. Bradley S. 19. John-Jules T. 17. Sibley L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 10. Waghorn M. 23. Ward J.
Coaches
Crosby A.	Warne P.

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Recent matches Port Vale is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Derby is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Port Vale have a series of guest games.

Recently Derby have a series of home games.

Derby will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Port Vale won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League One
25.11.23	Shrewsbury Town - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.11.23	Burton Albion - Port Vale	0:2 ✺
English League One
11.11.23	Lincoln City - Port Vale	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.11.23	Wrexham - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
04.11.23	Port Vale - Burton Albion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWTLT
- Derby County
English League One
25.11.23	Derby County - Bristol Rovers	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.11.23	Derby County - Crewe Alexandra	1:3 ✺
English League One
11.11.23	Derby County - Barnsley	3:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
08.11.23	Derby County - Wolverhampton Wanderers U21	4:1 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.23	Crewe Alexandra - Derby County	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
24.01.23	Port Vale - Derby County	1:2
08.10.22	Derby County - Port Vale	1:2
Club Friendly
18.07.17	Port Vale - Derby County	0:1
16.07.13	Port Vale - Derby County	3:5

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