Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 17

Date: 11 November 2023, Saturday


	Derby County		Barnsley

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	5.25
	1.68	3.8	4.6
	1.72	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.71	3.91	5.01
	1.72	3.91	5.02
	1.75	3.7	4.2
	1.71	3.88	4.55	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.77)	3.81 ↑ (3.71)	4.74 ↑ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
55.2%

Draw
24.9%

Barnsley
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

25.4%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

26.9%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Barnsley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Derby County - Barnsley Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Barnsley will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 3. Forsyth C. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 11. Mendez-Laing N. 12. Smith K. 8. Bird M. 7. Barkhuizen T. 9. Collins J.	23. Killip B. (G) 2. Williams J. (C) 6. Durand de Gevigney M. 26. McCart J. 22. O'Keeffe C. 3. Russell J. 20. Styles C. 7. Cadden N. 36. Watters M. 30. Phillips A. 44. Cole D.
Substitutes
5. Bradley S. 22. Fornah T. 26. Robinson D. 17. Sibley L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 43. Weston T. 2. Wilson K.	10. Benson J. 17. Cotter B. 29. Dodgson O. 50. Flavell K. (G) 12. Jalo F. 45. McAtee J. 41. Shepherd J.
Coaches
Warne P.	Collins N.

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 7 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 3.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Barnsley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Derby won 10 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 31-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 19-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English EFL Trophy
08.11.23	Derby County - Wolverhampton Wanderers U21	4:1 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.23	Crewe Alexandra - Derby County	2:2 ✺
English League One
31.10.23	Derby County - Northampton Town	4:0 ✺
28.10.23	Stevenage Borough - Derby County	3:1 ✺
24.10.23	Derby County - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTWLW
- Barnsley FC
English FA Cup
03.11.23	Barnsley - Horsham	3:3 ✺
English League One
28.10.23	Barnsley - Fleetwood Town	2:2 ✺
24.10.23	Barnsley - Shrewsbury Town	3:0 ✺
21.10.23	Leyton Orient - Barnsley	1:1 ✺
07.10.23	Exeter City - Barnsley	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
25.02.23	Barnsley - Derby County	4:1
English FA Cup
08.01.23	Derby County - Barnsley	3:0
English League One
13.08.22	Derby County - Barnsley	2:1
English League Championship
05.03.22	Derby County - Barnsley	2:0
03.11.21	Barnsley - Derby County	2:1
10.03.21	Barnsley - Derby County	0:0
07.11.20	Derby County - Barnsley	0:2

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