Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 34

Date: 17 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Reeves T. (Eng)


	Derby County		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.3
	2.15	3.25	3.4
	2.15	3.3	3.4
	2.16	3.25	3.4
	2.14	3.45	3.6
	2.05	3.5	3.2
	2.14	3.4	3.44	Watch
	2.05	3.35	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (2.01)	3.36 ↓ (3.53)	3.38 ↓ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
44.2%

Draw
27.9%

Stevenage Borough
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

26.8%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

28.7%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Derby County - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. (C) 6. Cashin E. 24. Nyambe R. 8. Bird M. 32. Adams E. 20. Elder C. 2. Wilson K. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 7. Barkhuizen T.	1. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 15. Vancooten T. 23. Thompson L. 5. Piergianni C. 3. Butler D. 2. Wildin L. 8. Forster-Caskey J. 10. Freeman N. 11. Roberts J. 19. Reid J. 29. Hemmings K.
Substitutes
22. Fornah T. 4. Hourihane C. 13. Loach S. (G) 17. Sibley L. 12. Smith K. 16. Thompson L. 23. Ward J.	17. Burns F. 7. MacDonald A. 12. MacGillivray C. (G) 33. Oliver V. 20. Pressley A. 6. Sweeney D. 18. White H.
Coaches
Warne P.	Evans S.

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 7).

Derby is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Stevenage is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Stevenage could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Derby won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
13.02.24	Exeter City - Derby County	0:3 ✺
10.02.24	Derby County - Shrewsbury Town	1:1 ✺
03.02.24	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	0:1 ✺
27.01.24	Derby County - Cheltenham Town	2:1 ✺
23.01.24	Reading - Derby County	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTWWL
- Stevenage Borough
English League One
13.02.24	Stevenage Borough - Bristol Rovers	2:3 ✺
10.02.24	Port Vale - Stevenage Borough	2:2 ✺
06.02.24	Stevenage Borough - Reading	0:1 ✺
03.02.24	Stevenage Borough - Blackpool	1:0 ✺
27.01.24	Wigan Athletic - Stevenage Borough	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
28.10.23	Stevenage Borough - Derby County	3:1
Club Friendly
19.07.22	Stevenage Borough - Derby County	1:0

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