Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 32

Date: 10 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Bell J. (Eng)


	Derby County		Shrewsbury Town

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	7
	1.47	4.2	6.5
	1.45	4.33	7	Watch
	1.44	4.2	6.4
	1.47	4.46	7.44
	1.44	3.9	7.5
	1.48	4.35	6.85	Watch
	1.41	4.3	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.35)	4.26 ↓ (4.94)	6.94 ↓ (8.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
64.5%

Draw
22%

Shrewsbury Town
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.9%

19%

11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.5%

18.3%

10.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.

Shrewsbury Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shrewsbury Town than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Derby County - Shrewsbury Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 5. Bradley S. 35. Nelson C. 23. Ward J. 32. Adams E. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 8. Bird M. 17. Sibley L. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 9. Collins J.	1. Marosi M. (G) 5. Feeney M. 22. Dunkley C. (C) 16. Pierre A. 3. Benning M. 7. Winchester C. 8. Hinchy J. 26. Shipley J. 15. Sobowale T. 11. Udoh D. 20. Bayliss T.
Substitutes
7. Barkhuizen T. 27. Blackett-Taylor C. 20. Elder C. 13. Loach S. (G) 12. Smith K. 16. Thompson L. 2. Wilson K.	17. Bennett E. 9. Bowman R. 13. Burgoyne H. (G) 12. Idowu R. 21. O'Brien A. 14. Perry T. 6. Sraha J.
Coaches
Warne P.	Hurst P.

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 17).

Derby is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Shrewsbury is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Derby is absolute favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Derby won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
03.02.24	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	0:1 ✺
27.01.24	Derby County - Cheltenham Town	2:1 ✺
23.01.24	Reading - Derby County	1:0 ✺
20.01.24	Lincoln City - Derby County	0:0 ✺
15.01.24	Derby County - Burton Albion	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLTW
- Shrewsbury Town
English League One
03.02.24	Shrewsbury Town - Cambridge United	1:2 ✺
27.01.24	Northampton Town - Shrewsbury Town	0:2 ✺
20.01.24	Peterborough United - Shrewsbury Town	2:1 ✺
13.01.24	Shrewsbury Town - Stevenage Borough	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
07.01.24	Shrewsbury Town - Wrexham	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
21.10.23	Shrewsbury Town - Derby County	1:0
04.03.23	Derby County - Shrewsbury Town	2:2
16.08.22	Shrewsbury Town - Derby County	0:0

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