Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 18

Date: 23 January 2024, Tuesday

Location: Select Car Leasing Stadium (Reading)

Referee: Drysdale D. (Eng)


	Reading		Derby County

	1	X	2
	4.2	4	1.8
	3.9	3.75	1.8
	4	3.75	1.83	Watch
	4.43	3.84	1.82
	3.9	3.75	1.8
	4.05	3.88	1.83	Watch
	4	3.95	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.07 ↓ (4.94)	3.85 ↑ (3.77)	1.81 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Reading
23.2%

Draw
24.5%

Derby County
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19%

24.9%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

25.3%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Reading has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Reading than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	11.8%	70.6%

Reading - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Reading will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Derby will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Button D. (G) 17. Yiadom A. (C) 24. Bindon T. 3. Holmes T. 20. Dorsett A. J. R. 8. Savage C. 11. Azeez F. 29. Wing L. 7. Knibbs H. 12. Mukairu P. 10. Smith S.	31. Vickers J. (G) 2. Wilson K. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 20. Elder C. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 16. Thompson L. 7. Barkhuizen T. 8. Bird M. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 9. Collins J.
Substitutes
36. Craig M. 15. Ehibhatiomhan K. 27. Mbengue A. S. 5. McIntyre T. 2. Mola C. 22. Pereira J. (G) 42. Vickers C.	99. Blackett-Taylor C. 5. Bradley S. 19. John-Jules T. 26. Robinson D. 17. Sibley L. 23. Ward J. 1. Wildsmith J. (G)
Coaches
Selles R.	Warne P.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Reading won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 22 head-to-head matches Reading won 8 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 33-28.

Including matches at home between the teams Reading won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Reading
English League One
20.01.24	Wigan Athletic - Reading	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
09.01.24	Brighton & Hove Albion U21 - Reading	1:0 penalties ✺
English League One
01.01.24	Reading - Exeter City	3:2 ✺
29.12.23	Cheltenham Town - Reading	2:2 ✺
26.12.23	Peterborough United - Reading	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLWTT
- Derby County
English League One
20.01.24	Lincoln City - Derby County	0:0 ✺
15.01.24	Derby County - Burton Albion	3:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
09.01.24	Derby County - Bradford City	0:1 ✺
English League One
06.01.24	Fleetwood Town - Derby County	1:3 ✺
01.01.24	Derby County - Peterborough United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
03.01.22	Reading - Derby County	2:2
29.09.21	Derby County - Reading	1:0
05.04.21	Reading - Derby County	3:1
12.09.20	Derby County - Reading	0:2
27.06.20	Derby County - Reading	2:1
21.12.19	Reading - Derby County	3:0
19.01.19	Derby County - Reading	2:1

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