Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 30

Date: 27 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Doughty L. (Eng)


	Derby County		Cheltenham Town

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5.5
	1.5	4.33	6
	1.5	4.33	6
	1.5	4.25	5.7
	1.52	4.47	6.5
	1.44	4.4	6.5
	1.53	4.49	5.49	Watch
	1.44	4.4	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.3)	4.4 ↓ (5.43)	5.96 ↓ (9.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
62.9%

Draw
21.4%

Cheltenham Town
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.4%

17.3%

10.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.3%

16.9%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.

Cheltenham Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cheltenham Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cheltenham Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	5.9%	5.9%

Derby County - Cheltenham Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.93% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Vickers J. (G) 2. Wilson K. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 17. Sibley L. 7. Barkhuizen T. 8. Bird M. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 27. Blackett-Taylor C. 9. Collins J. 11. Mendez-Laing N.	1. Southwood L. (G) 5. Smith A. 33. Davies C. 6. Freestone L. 2. Long S. (C) 34. Pett T. 23. Bonds E. 15. Ferry W. 11. Street R. 8. Sercombe L. 19. Lloyd G.
Substitutes
5. Bradley S. . Fapetu A. 22. Fornah T. 26. Robinson D. 16. Thompson L. 23. Ward J. 1. Wildsmith J. (G)	38. Butler-Oyedeji N. 25. Harrop J. 10. Keena A. 7. Kinsella L. 21. Pardington J. (G) 22. Smith L. 14. Thompson C.
Coaches
Warne P.	Clarke D.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Derby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Derby is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
23.01.24	Reading - Derby County	1:0 ✺
20.01.24	Lincoln City - Derby County	0:0 ✺
15.01.24	Derby County - Burton Albion	3:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
09.01.24	Derby County - Bradford City	0:1 ✺
English League One
06.01.24	Fleetwood Town - Derby County	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTWLW
- Cheltenham Town
English League One
23.01.24	Bolton Wanderers - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
06.01.24	Cheltenham Town - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
01.01.24	Northampton Town - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
29.12.23	Cheltenham Town - Reading	2:2 ✺
26.12.23	Cheltenham Town - Shrewsbury Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
07.10.23	Cheltenham Town - Derby County	1:1
28.02.23	Derby County - Cheltenham Town	2:0
14.01.23	Cheltenham Town - Derby County	2:3

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