Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 29

Date: 20 January 2024, Saturday

Location: LNER stadium (Lincoln)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	Lincoln City		Derby County

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.75	1.73
	4.75	3.5	1.72
	5	3.6	1.72	Watch
	4.2	3.55	1.73
	5.11	3.82	1.73
	4.6	3.6	1.7
	4.81	3.72	1.74	Watch
	4.6	3.7	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.73 ↑ (4.27)	3.66 ↑ (3.52)	1.72 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lincoln City
19.9%

Draw
25.7%

Derby County
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

26.7%

51.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

26.2%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lincoln City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	10.5%	73.7%

Lincoln City - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Lincoln will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Derby will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jensen L. (G) 25. Mitchell A. 5. Jackson A. (C) 23. Roughan S. 2. Sorensen L. 10. Bishop T. 6. Erhahon E. 7. Hackett-Fairchild R. 11. Hamilton E. 34. Draper F. 9. Taylor J.	31. Vickers J. (G) 2. Wilson K. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 20. Elder C. 7. Barkhuizen T. 8. Bird M. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 11. Mendez-Laing N. 17. Sibley L. 9. Collins J.
Substitutes
16. Burroughs J. 17. Duffy D. 22. Eyoma T. 27. Makama J. 28. Moylan J. 8. Smith A. 12. Wright J. (G)	5. Bradley S. 39. Brown D. 19. John-Jules T. 26. Robinson D. 16. Thompson L. 23. Ward J. 1. Wildsmith J. (G)
Coaches
Skubala M.	Warne P.

Preview

Lincoln has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Derby is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lincoln could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Lincoln won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Lincoln won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lincoln City
English League One
13.01.24	Wycombe Wanderers - Lincoln City	1:1 ✺
01.01.24	Blackpool - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
29.12.23	Lincoln City - Northampton Town	1:2 ✺
26.12.23	Lincoln City - Bolton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
21.12.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLLLL
- Derby County
English League One
15.01.24	Derby County - Burton Albion	3:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
09.01.24	Derby County - Bradford City	0:1 ✺
English League One
06.01.24	Fleetwood Town - Derby County	1:3 ✺
01.01.24	Derby County - Peterborough United	2:3 ✺
29.12.23	Oxford United - Derby County	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
21.12.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	3:1
English EFL Trophy
19.09.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	2:0
English League One
14.02.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	1:1
13.09.22	Lincoln City - Derby County	2:0

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